P.O. I have never been in my life not even close to what people call the far right. But i will bet you that President elect Bolsonaro will do a much better job than generally expected. Of course there will be some critics… But when the drug lords efectivevely run the big cities nothing can be achieved without a heavy hand. One thing is for sure… Things could not continue as they where. Please make some time and revisit my P.O. on Brazil.
Thank you for your patience. Francisco (Abouaf) de Curiel Marques Pereira
(BBG – Click to see) Former Army Captain Jair Bolsonaro looks set to be elected Brazil’s President on Oct. 28, according to the latest polls. A backbencher in the lower house of Congress for nearly three decades, he steadily amassed a popular following with his tough talk on crime, corruption and communism, peppered with incendiary comments about women and minorities. Following the dramatic demise of much of Brazil’s political establishment, Bolsonaro almost won the presidency in the first round vote on Oct. 7. On his road to power he has assembled a mixed group of family, friends and generals.
I am afraid Mr Lula da Silva is going to be detained and go to jail as soon as his appeal process with the Federal Supreme Court is ruled on.
No way around it.
Francisco (Abouaf) de Curiel Marques Pereira
(Bloomberg) — Brazil’s Superior Court of Justice turned
down a request for a preventative habeas corpus, filed by
lawyers on behalf of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Judge Humberto Martins, the vice president of the court,
wrote that such a plea is only applicable when there is “a
concrete threat of prison imminent” in a statement published on
the court’s website. The possibility of immediate imprisonment
does not appear to be present, the note stated.
Last week, an appeals court unanimously upheld Lula’s
conviction for corruption and money-laundering and extended his
jail time from nine and half years to 12 years and one month.
The judges also ruled that the 72-year-old leftist leader could
be jailed as soon as his appeals process cames to an end. On
Friday, a federal judge ordered the seizure of Lula’s passport
and barred him from leaving the country.
The ruling drastically reduced the chances that Lula will
be eligible to run for the presidency this year, though his
lawyers have vowed to challenge the decision. The front-runner
by a wide margin in opinion polls, Lula accepted the Workers’
Party nomination the day after the court’s judgment. Lawyers for
the ex-president filed a request for habeas corpus at the
Superior Court of Justice earlier on Tuesday.
(BBG) Brazil President Michel Temer has survived a massive corruption scandal with a victory in the lower house that allows him to cling to power and focus back on the economy.
Temer allies on Wednesday defeated the motion that would have put him on trial and forced him to step aside, with 263 against 227 votes. The result paves the way for Temer to ride out his term next year and at least temporarily pivot his attention toward economic reforms needed to fix Brazil’s battered public finances.
“It’s urgent to put the country on the path of growth, job creation, modernization and social justice,” Temer told reporters at the presidential palace after the congressional vote. “I won’t rest until December 31 of 2018.”
The final voting tally is in line with what many analysts had considered to be an acceptable showing for Temer and could allow him to garner enough support to push for reforms. In order to approve the administration’s flagship pension overhaul, considered essential by the finance ministry to put Brazil’s rising debt on a more sustainable path, the government would need 308 out of the 513 votes in the lower house.
“Temer has problems, but he has a very good agenda,” said Rafael Menin Teixeira de Souza, Co-CEO of MRV Engenharia e Participacoes SA, Latin America’s largest homebuilder by delivered units. “We’re confident that the worst is in the past,” he said earlier on Wednesday regarding the state of the economy during an interview with Bloomberg News in New York.
Eurasia Group’s analysts increased their odds on Temer completing his term next year to 70 percent from 60 percent before the vote. Brazilian exchange-traded funds also rose, with the ETF Lyxor Brazil Ibovespaclimbing 0.3 percent in Euronext Paris.
Temer, who two months ago looked like he could be ousted or forced to resign, applied all the political savvy he acquired during half a century in public office to rally support. With his government’s approval rating at only 5 percent, he personally lobbied over 160 legislators in recent weeks. On Tuesday he had lunch with at least 50 deputies from the agriculture caucus, offering to increase the government-mandated use of sugar cane-based ethanol.
Yet with an eye on next year’s general election, many legislators even in his own coalition tried to distance themselves from the 76 year-old constitutional lawyer who has seen numerous allies go to jail as a result of the three-year anti-corruption wave that has swept the country.
The Brazilian Social Democracy Party, one of the largest in his coalition, allowed its members to vote as they wish but recommended they accept the charges against Temer.
The president may have only a small window of opportunity for meaningful progress. Lower house speaker Rodrigo Maia has said that August may be the last chance to vote on the pension reform.
Also, top prosecutor Rodrigo Janot has indicated he may bring new charges against Temer before leaving office in September. That would push the government back to square one, restarting a process in Congress that took five weeks and ended with Wednesday’s vote.
“What kind of government can we expect starting tomorrow? Will there be a ministerial shuffle? Will there be reconciliation?” said Luiz Henrique Mandetta, a congressman for the ruling coalition’s DEM party. “There will be more charges against him.”
The legal alteration, known as Interim Measure (MP by the Portuguese acronym) 759/16, has caused major concern for housing activist, environmental and human rights groups across Brazil. By removing barriers to foreign and domestic companies to privatize and exploit public land, the law will directly impact the biodiversity and environmental protection of large areas, particularly the Amazon.
Meanwhile, in the urban context, the new law severely undermines the land rights of favela residents by giving equal priority to private interests and creating the conditions for commercial exploitation of urban areas occupied by low-income communities.
On the panel at the PUC event was: Maria Lúcia de Pontes, Public Defender with the Rio de Janeiro Land and Housing Nucleus (NUTH); Fernanda Vieira, professor and lawyer from the Mariana Criola Popular Advisory Centre; Alexandre Nascimento, PUC-Rio Social Science undergraduate and Brazilian Institute for the United National Environmental Programme (Instituto Brasil PNUMA) graduate in Environmental Management (UFRJ); and Pedro Paulo Cruz, social scientist and former director of Housing Regularization at ITERJ (Institute of State Lands of Rio de Janeiro) from 2000-2010.
Pedro Paulo Cruz started the discussion by contextualizing the new measure within historical legal frameworks around land rights in Brazil. Section 5 of Brazil’s Constitution declares that public land must serve a social function for the population. For Rio de Janeiro specifically, these requirements are also mentioned in the state’s constitution. However, Temer’s revision is a clear departure from the values and protections set out in the constitution, denying the rights of many agrarian and low-income families–whose need to dependably live on and off the land is greater than their need for the right to sell it–by enabling the easy privatization of public land.
Cruz argued that the ongoing legacy of slavery is a historical factor which allows Brazil’s politicians to neglect the needs of citizens. “Many residents keep being distanced further and further from the city center where they work and earn their living,” Cruz said. Over 77,000 people were evicted from communities all over Rio de Janeiro during the period leading up to the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, while market forces also displaced many through real estate speculation and urban renewal in this period.
Fernanda Vieira followed Cruz’s critique. In Brazil, there has been a surging war on land rights activists and she explained that the new MP will heighten the militaristic means with which the government quiets opposition.
Like Cruz, she noted that the economic practices that have shaped the world’s largest economies have resulted in and continued to advance unconstitutional policies that are against traditional workers’ rights. “We are further away from a city that is inclusive and democratic. That is why conversations like this are so crucial,” Vieira explained.
In the case of favelas, the new MP incentivizes the government to sell plots to beneficiaries instead of improving conditions of these informal residential communities that have long been abandoned by the government. “It is a perverse logic within a larger neoliberal framework that does not guarantee any right or access to decent citizenship with dignity for the majority of the population, meaning that families are going to suffer brutal pressure from capital in order to possibly maintain their land.”
Alex Nascimento focused on the social impacts of the new legislation. Although land disputes have been common since Brazil’s colonial founding, he declared the debate concerning land will become an overwhelming factor in the ability for indigenous and quilombo communities to survive and thrive. Following the philosophy of sovereignty, Nascimento highlighted that land is a key element within the right to not only protect oneself from outside forces but to sustain one’s livelihood. The conflict that is currently surging in Brazil is not new and it deals with land, the key for people to claim sovereignty and to sustain themselves and survive. “We need to realize that we are not only losing land, we are losing culture too, and we are losing our biodiversity,” he said.
The last speaker on the panel, Maria Lúcia de Pontes, emphasized how vulnerable Brazil could become to foreign interests in the coming years. Like the Dilma and Lula administrations that had been criticized for collaborating heavily with international companies, the new MP will allow foreign entities to buy publicly owned land despite the social rights of Brazilians. This move was seen by panelists as clearly demonstrating the current administration’s disinterest in improving the lives of favela residents. “These are people who do not dream about a new year model car, they dream of having proper security over their land and that dream is being threatened,” Pontes insisted.
Each of the speakers criticized recent trends decreasing Brazil’s lowest income groups’ access to land and housing and called on audience members to remain vigilant and active in response to current trends and policies.
…O clima de tensão é tal,que a situação pode evoluir a qualquer momento.
Este incidente é prova disso.
E com alguns políticos a apelarem a manifestações de rua, nada de bom pode acontecer.
E com o Exército a dizer que tem um Batalhão em estado de prontidão em São Paulo, para a eventualidade da situação entrar em descontrole…
E o mais grave, em minha opinião, e como eu escrevi (LINK) nas minhas Opiniões Pessoais , é que a corrupção parece ter atingido quase todos os sectores da sociedade brasileira.
De forma que não existe uma alternativa impoluta, e credível.
Quando numa democracia no século XXI se vêm os manifestantes a clamarem por um golpe militar…
Como eu escrevi, a situação ainda vai piorar, e muito, antes de começar a melhorar.
E o veredicto dos mercados é contundente…
De cada vez que se fala de um eventual impeachment da Presidente Dilma, a Bolsa de São Paulo e o Real sobem…
Quando o Financial Times, na sua edição europeia do fim de semana, tem a quase toda a largura da primeira página “Lula questioned over Petrobras scandal after police raid home”, a conclusão é óbvia… (Ver anexos)
E citando me outra vez:
“President Dilma is Brazil’s biggest liability”. (A Presidente Dilma é o principal factor de risco negativo do Brasil).»
Na altura houve quem dissesse que eu estava a exagerar…
Eu tinha dito que não me parecia normal, numa democracia, no século XXI, os manifestantes clamarem por um golpe militar, por considerarem que todos os restantes sectores da sociedade estavam contaminados pela corrupção…
No século XIX em Portugal dizia-se: “Foge cão que te fazem barão. Para onde se me fazem visconde?” José Leitão da Silva
João Baptista da Silva Leitão de Almeida Garrett
Visconde de Almeida Garrett
Visconde por uma Vida por Decreto do Rei D. Pedro V datado de 25 de Junho de 1851.
Título renovado duas vezes.
Será que actualmente alguém acha que eu estava a exagerar…?
Como dizem os anglo saxónicos…
I rest my case.
Francisco ( Abouaf) de Curiel Marques Pereira
(OBS) As autoridades brasileiras detiveram vários agentes políticos, incluindo um assessor do Presidente Michel Temer. Em causa um esquema de corrupção organizado durante o Mundial de Futebol de 2014.
A Polícia Federal diz que a remodelação do estádio pode ter sido sobrefaturada em cerca de 900 milhões de reais
A Polícia Federal brasileira deteve esta terça-feira os antigos governadores do Distrito Federal de Brasília José Roberto Arruda e Agnelo Queiroz e o ex-vice-governador Tadeu Filippeli, assessor do Presidente Michel Temer, no âmbito da Operação Panatenaico. Em causa estão suspeitas de desvio de fundos na ordem dos 900 milhões de reais (cerca de 245,6 milhões de euros) aquando a construção do Estado Nacional Mané Garrincha, em Brasília, para o Mundial de Futebol de 2014.
A operação policial é baseada na delação premiada (cedência de informações comprometedoras sobre terceiros em troca de uma redução de pena) de executivos da construtora Andrade Gutierrez sobre um esquema de corrupção nas obras do estádio de futebol Mané Garrincha, em Brasília, para o Mundial de Futebol de 2014.
A Polícia Federal diz que a remodelação do estádio pode ter sido sobrefaturada em cerca de 900 milhões de reais (245 milhões de euros), visto que estava orçada em 600 milhões de reais (164 milhões de euros) mas custou 1,5 mil milhões de reais (430 milhões de euros).
O Mané Garrincha não recebeu financiamento do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Social (BNDES), mas da Terracap, empresa do Governo do Distrito Federal que não tinha este tipo de operação prevista entre as suas atividades e que agora se encontra em estado de insolvência, escreve a Veja.
Agnelo, que foi governador do DF de 2011 a 2014, já foi condenado a ficar afastado da vida política (inelegível) por oito anos em 2016, por utilizar meios públicos em campanha política.
Na operação conduzida esta terça-feira, cerca de 80 polícias foram divididos em 16 equipas e devem ser cumpridos 10 mandados de prisão temporária, três de detenção coerciva e 15 mandados de busca e apreensão.
Além de agentes políticos, a operação tem como alvo agentes públicos, construtoras e pessoas que intermediaram subornos na altura da remodelação do estádio.
…Acham normal que um numero significativo de senadores e deputados tenham um jacto privado, sem que lhes tenha sido conhecida fortuna pessoal anterior…?
…Ver as minhas P.O. sobre o Brasil…
Francisco (Abouaf) de Curiel Marques Pereira
(Negócios) Lula da Silva é suspeito de ter recebido subornos da Odebrecht para facilitar o acesso a financiamentos subsidiados do banco estatal BNDES. Esta é a terceira denúncia do Ministério Público contra o ex-presidente.
O ex-presidente brasileiro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva foi denunciado nesta segunda-feira, 10 de Setembro, pelo Ministério Público Federal pelos crimes de tráfico de influência, organização criminosa, lavagem de dinheiro e corrupção passiva no âmbito da Operação Janus, que investiga negócios suspeitos em Angola com dinheiro do banco estatal de desenvolvimento, o BNDES.
Também Marcelo Odebrecht, dono da maior empreiteira do país e que já está preso na Operação Lava-Jato, foi denunciado por organização criminosa, lavagem de dinheiro e corrupção activa, a par do sobrinho de Lula, Taiguara Rodrigues dos Santos, que tinha contratos com a Odebrecht em Angola.
Escreve a imprensa brasileira que, segundo a Polícia e o Ministério Público Federal, Lula actuava como “verdadeiro lobista da construtora Odebrecht” a coberto das palestras que dava em vários países – incluindo em Portugal, onde esteve pela última vez em 2013 para apresentar um livro de José Sócrates. Essas palestras seriam pagas pela Odebrecht e, segundo a acusação, o ex-presidente recebeu directamente 7,6 milhões de reais (cerca de dois milhões de euros). A construtora, por sua vez, contratou a Exergia Brasil, empresa do seu sobrinho, Taiguara Rodrigues, para ajudar numa obra em Angola.
Segundo a revista Veja, mesmo sem experiência no ramo de engenharia o sobrinho de Lula recebeu 7 milhões de reais da Odebrecht. Uma parte desses recursos foi usada para pagar uma viagem a Cuba de Fábio Luis, filho mais velho do ex-presidente conhecido como Lulinha, e despesas pessoais de José Ferreira da Silva, conhecido como “Frei Chico”, irmão de Lula.
Esta investigação começou em Abril do ano passado, centrada nos empréstimos concedidos pelo BNDES para a Odebrecht entre 2008 e 2015. Segundo o Ministério Público, na comparação entre dez países que receberam financiamentos públicos do banco estatal, Angola teve um dos menores prazos médios de concessão dos empréstimos, celebrou a maior quantidade de contratos e recebeu o maior volume de dinheiro, com a menor taxa de juros.
Três vezes denunciado
Esta é a terceira vez que Lula é denunciado pelo Ministério Público Federal. Em Julho, o ex-presidente foi denunciado por ter comandando um esquema para obstruir a Operação Lava Jato, ao tentar comprar o silêncio de Nestor Cerveró”, ex-director da Petrobras envolvido no escândalo do “Petrolão”. A primeira audiência dessa acção está marcada para 8 de Novembro.
Mais recentemente, em 14 de Setembro, o ex-presidente foi denunciado pelos investigadores da Lava-Jato pela prática dos crimes de corrupção passiva e lavagem de dinheiro. Lula foi então apontado pelo Ministério Público como o “comandante máximo” do esquema do “Petrolão”, tendo recebido 3,7 milhões de reais em “luvas” da construtora OAS.
(BBG) Brazil bond investors are dialing back their optimism after newly appointed Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles acknowledged that the country’s fiscal problems are much worse than anyone had imagined.
Yields on government notes due in 2025 have jumped 0.55 percentage point from an almost 12-month low on May 12, when the minister took office. Since then, Meirelles — part of a group of cabinet officials that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dubbed a “dream team” — has said the economy is in worse shape than he anticipated. Brazil will also face a budget deficit excluding interest payments that’s 75 percent greater than the one forecast by the previous government.
Investors had piled into Brazil’s local bonds on speculation the ouster of President Dilma Rousseff would pave the way for a new government better able to pull Latin America’s biggest economy out of its worst recession in a century. Acting President Michel Temer said on Tuesday that he’ll ask Congress to limit subsidies and approve a cap on government spending as he seeks to restore investor confidence.
“The economic situation is very troubling and the way to solve this situation is with unpopular measures that are difficult to pass in Congress,” said Rodrigo Melo, chief economist at Rio de Janeiro-based Icatu Vanguarda Ltda. “This explains why the yields have risen somewhat from when Temer took office.”
A constitutional amendment needed to implement the spending cap could be sent to Congress in two weeks, according to Meirelles. It must be approved twice by three-fifths of both houses.
On May 23, the government submitted a bill that would allow it to report a record primary budget shortfall of 170.5 billion reais ($48.4 billion) in 2016, compared with a projection of 97 billion reais by Rousseff’s government.
The economy will contract 3.83 percent this year after shrinking 3.85 percent in 2015, according to economists surveyed by the central bank.
“We are looking at how bad the situation really is, and the new economic team will have to work at the top of their undeniable capability,” said Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs. “This will be a long struggle.”
Please find below my published Personal Opinions on Brazil.
Make some time to go through them carefully,starting at the last one, originally published in June 20, 2013, in which I was already smelling trouble ahead. I quote myself:
«Apart from worse economic conditions, I have the distinct impression, that this
has everything to do with the current Administration and it’s policies. (And not only that). And now that the Government has given in, I am afraid that the protesters have” smelled blood”… They are going to keep on demanding more and more.It’s like if you pay once if you are being blackmailed. It will never stop. I hope i am wrong. But I think this situation is going to get much worse. And the outcome is unpredictable.»
And in the next one published March 22, 2015, I quote myself again:
Brazil is going through “a perfect storm”.
The economy is in shambles.
The Government, the States, and the Federation accounts are not sustainable.
The Country’s accounts also.
Everything, except for part of the judiciary system, has been touched, in one way or another, by corruption, or it’s reverberations.
In my opinion, the current Administration has only been surviving, because they are all, Government and Opposition, more or less afraid of each other…
Almost all of them “are in it”…
But the Citizens are furious, and desperate.
In a Democracy, and in the 21st Century, they are calling for a ” Military Intervention”…
And things are going to get worse, much worse.
I am of the opinion, that, for better or for worse,things will not stay as they are.