Unfortunately my predictions are becoming facts.
The EU is in total disarray over the migrants problem , and I can see no way of this major, major problem being fixed in the near future.
Or the future full stop, for that matter.
And I cannot see anyway of stopping the various individual or collective actions by the various EU Member States by now involved.
The EU seems to have forgotten, that in some Central Europe States, this issue is crucial and vital.
The resentment against Germany, essentially caused by memories of WWII is there and pretty much alive.
And now, obviously much enhanced by Germany’s dominance of the EU.
I wrote several times that the Peoples of Europe would never ever accept a German dominance of the EU.
Whether we feel it’s reasonable, or not, it is a fact of Life.
There is no way it is going to be accepted…
Money or no money…
And Germany, which was very carefull for decades, seems to have overlooked this…
Please take a look on what I wrote back in September 2015…
+++ M.P.O. (FT) Europe will fail the values test on refugees – Gideon Rachman
I quote myself:
«I don’t know what the solution is, in order for the EU to be able to cope with the hundreds of thousands of refugees, with horrific stories,and in an appalling situation, trying escape death and misery in their own Countries.
But one thing I think I know.
And that is that this historic migration is of proportions never seen in the EU, or Europe for that matter, since the end of WWII.
And with the current set of rules, it is not going to stop any time soon.
We all have humanitarian values, and certainly feel the obligation of trying to help, and ease all this suffering.
The Schengen agreements make it in a way that, by arriving in one EU Country, in practical terms anyone more or less gains the right to go to any Schengen Country.
And in time, the Governments will became split between their humanitarian values, and the duty to respect its Citizens opinions.
And this is a current trend around the World, from Australia to the U.S. .
Major imbalances will increase in Europe, as a result of the influx of people whose values have very little to do with our own.
And the obvious consequence will be the abolishment of free circulation in the current Schengen area.
Let’s be realistic.
As long as the Schengen Treaties are in place, this will never stop.
And a lot of people, that are not really refugees, will take advantage of this situation.
There is no way around it.
And if nothing is done, more and more extremist political parties will appear in various Countries.
And that is unacceptable.
I don’t know what the solution is.
But to take in , which Europe must, the current wave of refugees and not changing the rules, will only make matters worse, and we will arrive at a situation in which we will not be able to take any more people, regardless if we want to, or not.
And if the EU does not act quickly, it will be it’s end,in the current form, and with the current rules.»
End of Quote.
Coming back to our problem…
And it is only surpassed by resentment against Russia in the Countries that have been occupied by the Soviets.
Any one that has travelled to Central and Eastern Europe should know this…
Even in the symbols in buildings…
Anything that could be associated with the Nazis or the Soviets has been meticulously removed…
And what do we see today…?
+++ P.O. (Reuters) Germany wants extension of Schengen border controls: paper
I quote myself again:
«Quod erat demonstrandum!
As per my P.O. of September 8, 2015, and others, the Schengen Treaty is dead, and dead for good.
Whether one likes it, or not, the concept of free travel, in the Schengen Countries, without controls, is incompatible today’s terrorism and the migrants.
Yes migrants, because the large majority of them are not refugees at all…
They don’t even come from anywhere near the war affected Countries…
Eventually the concept of free travel, with border checks, for legal residents of the Schengen Countries might eventually be retained.
But things being what they are, even this light version is a problem.»
+++ V.V.I. (BBG) Dutch Populist Wilders Says EU Finished, Netherlands Must Leave
+++ V.V.I. (FT) Gideon Rachman: Mass migration into Europe is unstoppable
+++ P.O. and V.V.I. (FT) Refugee influx threatens fall of EU, warns Dutch PM
+++ P.O. V.I. (FT) EU migrant tensions rise as Sweden seeks to join relocation plan
I quote myself again:
I told you so…
“So far, only 116 people have been relocated out of the proposed 160,000, and member states have offered just over 1,000 places for asylum seekers.”
“Only €30m of a proposed €1.8bn “trust fund” to help African countries stop the flow of people has been delivered. Likewise, a planned €500m aid package for Syria has so far received just €50m from EU members.”
“EU diplomats gave warning that allowing Sweden to join the EU relocation process would open the door for other north European countries facing vast numbers of asylum seekers — such as Germany — to join the scheme.”
“Berlin’s participation would prove particularly contentious as Germany heaped diplomatic pressure on its neighbours to support the scheme, in the face of vociferous opposition from Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.”
“German handling of the refugee crisis has been attacked by its neighbours, who have argued that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s welcoming attitude has made the situation worse and encouraged people to try to make the trip.”
Of course it has made the situation worse, I say.
None of this has any legal base, and is not enforcable, I say so…and not just me:
«Lawmakers on Tuesday passed a resolution stating that the European Commission “has no legal ground” for implementing a system of mandatory migrant quotas.
The resolution, which says that the quota system violates the principle of subsidiarity, was adopted with 141 votes in favour, 27 against and 1 abstention.
The resolution stated that the implementation of the quota system would establish a “centralised procedure” that bypasses both the European Council and consultation with member states. The EC has failed to prove that the quota system would result in a more efficient handling of migrants or that it would offer any “added value” for the EU, it said.»
in +++ V.I. (HNW) Parlt says EU has no legal basis to implement migrant quota scheme
End of quote.
(FT) Brussels Briefing: The Vienna Insurrection:
(FT)There are 20 European ministers in Vienna today for one of the most extraordinary meetings of the migration crisis – and there have been some pretty extraordinary meetings.
Austria has convened nine countries along the so-called western Balkans migration route. That sounds reasonable enough. Foreign and interior ministers will be present from Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. Missing from the guestlist, though, is the main migrant entry-point (Greece) and the main destination-point (Germany). That is either a rather big oversight – or an act of mutiny.
It caps a week where the dominoes have begun to fall in south-eastern Europe. Austria’s renegade policy – imposing asylum caps while waving through Germany-bound migrants – has triggered other national responses down the line. Vienna is even considering deploying troops to the Macedonia border. It is shaping facts on the ground that are fast eclipsing the prospects for a “European solution”, if ever it were possible.
Once all-powerful German Chancellor Angela Merkel seems almost sidelined. Austria and Slovenia, combined population 10m, did not even bother to inform her before their abrupt policy shift last week. Werner Faymann, the Austrian chancellor, seems cornered by coalition politics at home and immune to criticism from Brussels or Ms Merkel. Meanwhile a very agitated European Commission is warning of ahumanitarian crisis, fearing disorder as thousands of migrants are trapped in Greece or along the route. The UNHCR is warning of “potential chaos”.
From Vienna’s perspective, there is little choice. Mr Faymann could no longer hold the line for Ms Merkel. As Johanna Mikl-Leitner, the centre-right interior minister, explained in a letter to the Commission: “Since the common European solution is still pending, Austria must take all necessary measures to handle the migration flows”. Given the collapse of the rules around asylum and returns, she said Austria was simply “contributing to European solidarity in the best possible way”.
In conclusion, I would argue that only by revoking free circulation can the EU stop the internal implosion that has already started.
It is very sad to see the 20th Century’s best idea come to an end.
Due, in my opinion again, to the Franco-German dominance.
Francisco (Abouaf) de Curiel Marques Pereira
(FT) Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has announced a referendum on whether the country should be forced to resettle refugees, sending the EU’s response to the migration crisis into further disarray.
Mr Orban claimed Brussels’ refugee plan was an attempt to redraw Hungary’s cultural, religious and ethnic landscape and said the EU had no right to impose a German-led EU scheme to share the burden of hosting asylum seekers.
“Introducing resettlement quotas for migrants without the support of the people is an abuse of power,” he told reporters in Budapest on Wednesday, arguing only Hungarian MPs could approve such a plan.
“No one but us, the elected representatives of the Hungarian parliament, can make this decision.”
Mr Orban’s gambit further complicates an EU’s response to the refugee crisis that has fallen into confusion in the past week as member states opt for unilateral — and often contradictory — policies. Meanwhile, Brussels and Berlin, which have driven the bloc’s migration policy, have seen their control diminish in recent weeks.
While Mr Orban was announcing his plans, Austria met nine countries in Vienna to discuss ways of curbing the flow of people heading to the heart of Europe on a Balkan route that more than 100,000 people have travelled so far this year.
“It is important and necessary to stop the flow of migration along the Balkans,” Johanna Mikl-Leitner, Austria’s interior minister, told reporters. “We need measures that can be implemented together with the Balkan states.”
But Vienna pointedly failed to invite Germany, Greece or the European Commission — to the fury of diplomats in Berlin, Athens and Brussels.
The Austrian meeting came amid growing worry that clampdowns imposed by governments along that route in recent days could create a dangerous backlog of migrants in Greece that would overwhelm local authorities. The commission has dispatched staff to Greece to try to ward off a possible humanitarian crisis.
The unilateral blockages have also irritated Germany, whose chancellor, Angela Merkel, is banking on a Europe-wide response to the crisis in which Greece is a key participant.
In one indication of the growing discord, Austria and Slovenia did not inform Ms Merkel before their abrupt shift to tighten borders late last week.
In a call with Ms Merkel on Wednesday, Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, expressed “intense disappointment” at the EU’s failure to live up to its commitment.
The Hungary referendum would be the fifth time in a year that a member state has called a popular vote on EU policy, adding an extra layer of complexity on everything from the Greek bailout to the bloc’s relationship with Russia.
Last summer, Mr Tsipras launched a referendum on Greece’s bailout package. In the Netherlands, an anarchic Dutch magazine campaigned for — and won — the right to a referendum on the EU’s trade deal with Ukraine, which will go ahead in April. Denmark held a referendum on whether it should be able to “opt-in” to the EU’s justice and home affairs policies; an idea the Danes rejected.
Meanwhile, the UK will vote this summer on whether to remain in the EU at all. Nigel Farage, a British MEP, dubbed it “referendum season”.
Mr Orban said referendums were “a part of European politics” and urged others to follow his lead in putting the issue to a vote: “That is why in good spirit we recommend this to others.”
Hungary is legally bound by the EU plan, which was agreed by the bloc’s leaders in September after considerable pressure was applied by Berlin. But in practice, Brussels has few immediate ways of enforcing its policy if Budapest resists. A large popular vote rejecting the policy would further complicate the situation for Brussels.
Mr Orban did not say when the vote would be held. But already analysts have questioned if the proposed wording for the referendum — whether voters want to allow the EU to impose resettlement of foreigners without parliamentary consent — is legal under Hungary’s constitution.
Hungary had already filed a legal challenge against the plan to resettle refugees in member states, agreed by EU leaders at a tense meeting in Brussels last year.
The announcement of the plebiscite follows on from a publicly funded multimillion-euro public relations campaign in Hungary against immigration and the so-called “refugee quotas” last year. An official government website warned Hungarians that decades of migration into western Europe had created “hundreds of no-go areas” in cities such as Paris and London.
Mr Orban has made his hardline opposition to migration the key issue of his third term in office, a move that rescued his party from a slide in domestic support last year. He has positioned himself as the defender of Hungarians threatened by Islamic immigration, saying that migration leads to terrorism and violent assault.
The radical rightwing Jobbik party, which first suggested a referendum on the refugee plan last year, remains Mr Orban’s largest domestic rival.