Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday said his country would “stubbornly” continue to push for European Union membership. Speaking in Ankara, he said that “Turkey proceeds on its way persistently despite those trying to exclude it from the European family”. Erdogan accused the EU of leaving Turkey alone to shoulder the refugee burden. It is housing some 3.6 million Syrian refugees. Turkey first applied for EU membership in 1987.
Turkey’s currency fell to its lowest level since October as its bonds came under pressure, after a decision by the country’s election council to nullify the result of a mayoral election in Istanbul sharpened investor concerns. The FT’s Eva Szalay reports
The decision comes after the opposition won a narrow victory in March.
Turkey’s election authorities on Monday annulled the Istanbul municipal vote more than a month after an opposition candidate was elected as the city’s mayor.
The country’s Supreme Electoral Board (YSK) announced that the election would be re-run on June 23, state media reported. A spokesman for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) called the decision an act of “plain dictatorship.”
Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP’s candidate, was officially declared Istanbul’s mayor by the city’s election authorities in mid-April after weeks of wrangling over the result following a partial recount.
But President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) repeatedly called for the March 31 Istanbul election to be cancelled, alleging widespread “irregularities” in the vote.
İmamoğlu had scored a narrow victory, beating his rival Binali Yıldırım, a former prime minister, by about 13,000 votes in a city of 10 million eligible voters. Erdoğan declared that with such a small margin, “no one has the right to say they won.”
The YSK’s ruling — made under intense pressure from the government — marks a turning point for Turkey. In past years, the country’s elections were considered unfair but nevertheless competitive, an assumption now called into question by the decision to annul a previously validated opposition victory.
Yet it is not an entirely unprecedented step: in 2015, Erdoğan called a snap vote under controversial circumstances shortly after a general election in which the AKP lost its majority, although only after the breakdown of coalition negotiations.
İmamoğlu’s victory had been heralded as the end of an era, with Erdoğan’s conservative political movement losing control of Istanbul for the first time in a quarter century.
The AKP also suffered heavy losses elsewhere in the nationwide municipal elections in March, with the opposition winning in the capital Ankara and snatching several other provinces from the ruling party. The election will be re-run only in Istanbul.
The Turkish lira, already under strain, fell by more than 2.5 percent after the announcement.
FT calculations suggest foreign reserves held by the central bank have been bolstered by an unusual surge in the use of short-term borrowing, or swaps, underlining concerns about Ankara’s financial defences
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Tuesday that Venezuelan gold would be processed in the Central Anatolian province of Çorum.
Speaking at a rally ahead of local elections on March 31, the president said Çorum would reach a new level in terms of gold trade amid reports that Venezuela sells most of its gold to Turkish refineries.
On Monday Reuters reported that Venezuela uses some of the proceeds to buy consumer goods such as pasta and powdered milk, citing people with direct knowledge of the trade.
Trade between the two nations grew eightfold last year.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s gold program has developed in tandem with his deepening relationship with Turkey’s Erdoğan. Both leaders have been criticized internationally for cracking down on political dissent and undermining democratic norms to concentrate power.
A Nov. 1 executive order signed by US President Donald Trump bars US persons and entities from buying gold from Venezuela.
It does not apply to foreigners.
Ankara has assured the US Treasury that all of Turkey’s trade with Venezuela is in accordance with international law.
Venezuela in December 2016 announced a direct flight from Caracas to İstanbul on Turkish Airlines. The development was surprising given the low demand for travel between the two nations.
Trade data show those planes are carrying more than passengers. On New Year’s Day, 2018, Venezuela’s central bank began shipping gold to Turkey with a $36 million air shipment of the metal to Istanbul. It came just weeks after a visit by Maduro to Turkey.
Shipments last year reached $900 million, according to Turkish government data and trade reports.
Venezuela’s central bank has been selling its artisan gold directly to Turkish refiners, according to two senior Venezuelan officials. Proceeds go to the Venezuelan state development bank Bandes to purchase Turkish consumer goods, the officials said.
Gold buyers include Istanbul Gold Refinery, or IGR, and Sardes Kıymetli Madenler, a Turkish trading firm, according to a person who works in Turkey’s gold industry as well as a Caracas-based diplomat and the two senior Venezuelan officials.
In an interview with Reuters, IGR CEO Ayşen Esen denied the company has been involved in any Venezuelan gold deals. In a written statement, she said she met with Venezuelan and Turkish officials in İstanbul in April to offer her views on compliance with international regulations.
Esen said she advised the Turkish government that working with Venezuela “would not be right for leading institutions or the state.”
As for Sardes Kıymetli Madenler, no one at its İstanbul offices responded to inquiries from Reuters.
Turkish consumer products, meanwhile, are making their way to Venezuelan tables. In early December 54 containers of Turkish powdered milk arrived at the port of La Guaira near Caracas, according to port records seen by Reuters.
The İstanbul-based shipper, Mulberry Proje Yatırım, shares an address with Marilyns Proje Yatırım, a mining company that signed a joint venture with Venezuela’s state mining firm Minerven last year, according to filings with a Turkish trade registry gazette in September.
Greek prime minister wants a closed Orthodox Christian seminary he was visiting in Turkey to be reopened as part of efforts to boost ties between the two countries. Mr Tsipras attended mass and toured the Theological School of Halki on a wooded isle off the Istanbul shoreline
Messages obtained from the WhatsApp account of murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi shine a light on the possible reasons behind his death, depicting the full extent of his animosity towards Saudi Arabia and his plans to establish an “electronic army” of activists against the regime.
“The more victims he eats, the more he wants,” Khashoggi said in a message sent to Saudi dissident Omar Abdulaziz, following a series of arrests of women’s rights activists in Saudi Arabia. “I will not be surprised if the oppression will reach even those who are cheering him on.”
In other messages, the Washington Post journalist referred to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a “beast”.
In later WhatsApp exchanges between Khashoggi and Abdulaziz, the pair were seen to be plotting a digital offensive against the Saudi regime by establishing an “electronic army” of activists, dubbed the “cyber bees”, who would seek to challenge Saudi propaganda on social media.
Speaking to CNN, Abdulaziz said: “Twitter is the only tool they’re using to fight and to spread their rumours. We’ve been attacked, we’ve been insulted, we’d been threatened so many times, and we decided to do something.”
Research conducted by the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab found that military-grade spyware had been used to hack Abdulaziz’s mobile phone before Khashoggi’s death.
Khashoggi and Abdulaziz’s plot centred around plans to purchase and distribute foreign sim cards to activists in Saudi Arabia which would allow dissidents to evade being traced by authorities. Khashoggi had originally pledged to bankroll the project to the tune of $30,000.
“I sent you some ideas about the electronic army. By email,” Abdulaziz writes to Khashoggi. The latter responded: “I will try to sort out the money. We have to do something.”
However, the text messages also reveal that fears arose about a suspected espionage campaign against Abdulaziz and Khashoggi by the Saudi authorities.
After becoming aware of the fact that the Saudis were most probably tracking their plans, Khashoggi writes to Abdulaziz: “God help us.”
The journalist went on to instruct Abdulaziz to no longer speak about the subject of the ‘cyber bees’ on social media.
Meanwhile, Abdulaziz, who is still exiled in Canada, has accused an Israeli software company of being behind the hacking of his phone messages, which he believes directly led to the killing of Khashoggi.
On Sunday, the Saudi national filed a lawsuit against the NSO Group, under the allegation that it assisted the Saudi regime in gaining access to the WhatsApp exchange.
“The hacking of my phone played a major role in what happened to Jamal, I am really sorry to say,” Abdelaziz told CNN. “The guilt is killing me.”
The EU has stood firm in its preference for those accountable to be held responsible for Khashoggi’s death.
At the recent G20 meeting of world leaders in Buenos Aires, EU Council President Donald Tusk announced that there was an “urgent need to establish what happened” to Khashoggi.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May highlighted the “importance of a full, credible, transparent investigation that identifies those who were involved and the importance of ensuring that those who were involved are held to account.”
In addition, the EU’s foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini has called for a complete investigation into the “deeply troubling” death of Khashoggi.
In a joint statement published at the end of October, Germany, the UK and France also took a unified approach, saying that “nothing can justify this killing and we condemn it in the strongest possible terms.”
(ZH) Hours after Turkish President Erdogan demanded that Saudi Arabia disclose the whereabouts of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s remains, body parts reportedly belonging to Khashoggi have been found, according to Sky sources, though the exact location wasn’t revealed. According to anonymous sources cited by Sky News, the writer had been “cut up” and his face “disfigured.”
One source suggested that Khashoggi’s remains had been discovered in the garden of the Saudi consul general’s home. “Why has the body of someone who was officially said to be killed not been found yet?” Erdogan asked during his speech at Turkey’s parliament on Tuesday.
He added that all 18 of the Saudi nationals arrested in connection with the killing should stand trial in Istanbul.
The circumstances surrounding the discovery of Khashoggi’s body parts both contradict Saudi Arabia’s explanation for his death. According to the Saudis, Khashoggi’s body was handed off to a local fixer after being wrapped in a rug. Though Erdogan didn’t mention Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman in his speech, the kingdom and the prince have denied his involvement.
If accurate, the discovery of Khashoggi’s remains will likely unleash a new round of international pressure on the Saudis, who have seen foreign investors pull money from their stock market while Wall Street CEOs and a handful of industrialists and tech titans have pulled out of the kingdom’s “Davos in the Desert.”
(ZH) In the latest bombshell report involving the Khashoggi murder, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly spoke on the phone with journalist Jamal Khashoggi moments before he was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Turkish pro-government daily Yeni Safak disclosed the new alleged details of the case in a report on Sunday, contradicting claims by Saudi authorities that Prince Mohammed played no part in Khashoggi’s murder.
“Khashoggi was detained by the Saudi team inside the consulate building. Then Prince Mohammed contacted Khashoggi by phone and tried to convince him to return to Riyadh,” the report said.
“Khashoggi refused Prince Mohammed’s offer out of fear he would be arrested and killed if he returned. The assassination team then killed Khashoggi after the conversation ended,” it added.
While the report is so far unconfirmed, the New Arab reports that so far Turkish pro-government media have been receiving a steady stream of leaks many of which turned out to be accurate, including pictures of the hit team as they entered Turkey and reports of audio recordings of the murder said to be in the possession of Turkish authorities.
Meanwhile, the Saudi version of events has been changing significantly over the past two weeks with authorities conceded Saturday that Khashoggi, the Washington Post columnist and a Riyadh critic, was killed inside the kingdom’s Istanbul diplomatic compound following a “brawl”. The admission came after a fortnight of denials with the insistence that the journalist left the consulate alive, starting on October 5, when Crown Prince MBS told Bloomberg that Khashoggi was not inside the consulate and “we are ready to welcome the Turkish government to go and search our premises”.
On Saturday, the kingdom announced it had fired five top officials and arrested 18 others in an investigation into the killing – a move that has widely been viewed as an attempt to cover up the crown prince’s role in the murder.
The shifting Saudi narrative of the killing has been met with scepticism and condemnation from the international community, and has left the U.S. and other allies struggling for a response on Sunday. As Bloomberg reports, France demanded more information, Germany put arms sales to Riyadh on hold and the Trump administration stressed the vital importance of the kingdom and its economy to the U.S.
In Sunday radio and TV interviews, Dominic Raab, the U.K. politician in charge of negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union, described the latest Saudi account as not credible; French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire called for “the truth’’; and Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said his government would approve no arms sales so long as the investigation was ongoing.
Earlier on Sunday, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir acknowledged a cover-up attempt. The dramatic reversal, after Saudi officials had previously said the columnist left the building alive, has only complicated the issue for allies.
Saudi Arabia’s al-Jubeir told Fox News on Sunday that the journalist’s death was an “aberration.”
“There obviously was a tremendous mistake made and what compounded the mistake was the attempt to cover up,” he said, promising that “those responsible will be punished for it.”
More importantly, he said that Prince Mohammed had no knowledge of the events, although if the Turkish report is confirmed, it will be yet another major flaw with the official narrative.
Several senior members of US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party said they believed Prince Mohammed was linked to the killing, and one called for a “collective” Western response if a link is proved. In an interview with The Washington Post, President Trump, too, said the Saudi narrative had been marked by “deception and lies.’’ Yet he also defended Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a “strong person,’’ and said there was no proof of his involvement in Khashoggi’s death. Some members of Congress have questioned his willingness to exonerate the prince.
“Obviously there’s been deception and there’s been lies,” Trump said on the shifting accounts offered by Riyadh.
On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to disclose details about the case at a meeting of his AK Party’s parliamentary faction on Tuesday, Haberturk newspaper reported.
Meanwhile, as Western firms and high-ranked officials scramble to avoid any Saudi involvement, Russia is more than happy to step in and fill the power vacuum void left by the US. As a result, Russian businesses are flocking to attend the investment forum in Saudi Arabia, as Western counterparts pull out.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has had considerable success boosting Moscow’s influence in the Middle East at U.S. expense, by standing by regimes that fall afoul of the West, including in Syria and Iran. Last week Putin signed a strategic and partnership agreement with Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, backed by $25 billion in loans to build nuclear reactors. Until El-Sisi came to power, Egypt had been closely allied to the U.S.
Meanwhile, all eyes are fixed squarely on the Crown Prince whose position of power is looking increasingly perilous. Congressional leaders on Sunday dismissed the story proffered earlier by the Saudis, with Republican Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bob Corker of Tennessee saying they believed the crown prince was likely involved in Khashoggi’s death.
Lawmakers said they believe the U.S. must impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia or take other action if the crown prince is shown to have been involved. Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the chamber’s No. 2 Democrat, said the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. should be formally expelled until a third-party investigation is done. He said the U.S. should call on its allies to do the same.
“Unless the Saudi kingdom understands that civilized countries around the world are going to reject this conduct and make sure that they pay a price for it, they’ll continue doing it,”’ Durbin said.
The obvious question is what happens and how the Saudi royal family will respond if it is pushed too far, and whether the worst case scenario, a sharp cut in oil exports, could be on the table if MBS feels like he has little to lose from escalating the situation beyond a point of no return.
(ZH) Update (12 pm ET): Speaking again on the subject of Khashoggi, President Trump emphasized the importance of maintaining the US’s business relationship with the Saudis, and added that the public would hear the full story of what happened by “the end of the week.” Trump added that the US “needs Saudi Arabia’s help” in the fight against terrorism. Trump also said he has requested the audio tapes that the Turkish government claims to have which should prove that Khashoggi was murdered “if they exist.”
Meanwhile, after his meeting with Turkish officials in Ankara, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to speculate about whether Khashoggi was alive or dead.
“I don’t want to talk about any of the facts. They didn’t want to either,” Pompeo said.
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Update (8 am ET): Speaking with reporters during his trip to Turkey, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo repeated his comments about the Saudis promising a “thorough, transparent” investigation that will be conducted “in a timely fashion.”
“They told me they were going to conduct a thorough, complete, transparent investigation”and made a commitment to holding anyone connected to any wrongdoing accountable, Pompeo told reporters Wednesday as he headed to Turkey, where the journalist was last seen entering the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.
Nobody from the Trump administration has responded to the latest explosive allegations about Khashoggi’s death, though it’s worth noting that Turkish officials who have spurred claims about Saudi’s role in Khashoggi’s disappearance haven’t produced any tangible evidence – though Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has promised a “thorough” investigation.
* * *
While President Trump would love it if the Western media, along with prominent executives in tech and finance, would buy Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s claims that he had “no knowledge” of the confrontation at the Saudis’ consulate in Istanbul that’s believed to have precipitated the killing of insider-turned-Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, yet more evidence has emerged this morning to contradict the official Saudi narrative.
Trial balloons floated by the kingdom in the Western press, as well as Trump’s own suggestions, point to “rogue operatives”, but in a story published last night, the New York Times managed to corroborate Turkish officials’ claims that several suspected members of the 15-man ‘hit squad’ have been directly linked with MbS.
And now, in what has been billed as the first glimpse of the grisly circumstances of Khashoggi’s murder, the Middle East Eye and the Wall Street Journal have reported that “it took seven minutes for Khashoggi to die.”
But in what was probably the most gruesome details from the report, MEM reported that Dr. Salah Muhammad al-Tubaigy, who was identified by the Times and other media outlets as an “autopsy expert” whose presence cuts against Saudis’ suggestions that the killing wasn’t premeditated, started cutting Khashoggi’s body into pieces while the journalist was unconscious, but still breathing. Previously, Khashoggi had been knocked unconscious after being injected with a mysterious substance.
MEM attributed its information to a person who had listened to the Turkish government’s recording of the murder (its agents had apparently bugged the Saudi consulate, which is unsurprising given the tense relations between the two Muslim powers that only deteriorated during last year’s Qatari crisis). That recording, which hasn’t been publicly shared, has served as the basis for dozens of media reports about Khashoggi’s death. According to this source, after arriving at the consulate, Khashoggi was dragged from the consul-general’s office at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul into his study next door, before being pinned down on the table and injected with an unknown substance. During the attack, horrifying screams were heard by witnesses.
After Khashoggi had been knocked unconscious (never to awaken again), al-Tubaigy put on his headphones and started the grim process of dismembering the body with a bone saw.
Tubaigy began to cut Khashoggi’s body up on a table in the study while he was still alive,the Turkish source said. The killing took seven minutes, the source said.
As he started to dismember the body, Tubaigy put on earphones and listened to music. He advised other members of the squad to do the same.
“When I do this job, I listen to music. You should do [that] too,” Tubaigy was recorded as saying, the source told MEE.
A three-minute version of the audio tape has been given to Turkish newspaper Sabah, but they have yet to release it.
A Turkish source told the New York Times that Tubaigy was equipped with a bone saw. He is listed as the president of the Saudi Fellowship of Forensic Pathology and a member of the Saudi Association for Forensic Pathology.
Later, the NYT reported that the hit squad cut off Khashoggi’s fingers while he was still conscious during an interrogation where he was also beaten and tortured before being dragged into another room where they finished butchering him.
According to WSJ, voices on the tapes can be heard asking the Saudi consul to leave his office before the hit squad murdered Khashoggi. The consul, Mohammad al-Otaibi, departed Turkey for Riyadh Tuesday afternoon after the Saudis, in a sudden reversal, denied Turkey’s requests to search Otaibi’s residence, saying his home was off limits to investigators.
When Otaibi objected to the killing happening in his office, he was told to shut up “if he wanted to live.”
“Do this outside. You will put me in trouble,” Mr. al-Otaibi, the consul, told them, according to the Turkish official and the report in Yeni Safak, both citing audio recordings said to have been obtained by Turkish intelligence.
“If you want to live when you come back to Arabia, shut up,” one of the agents replied, according to both the official and the newspaper.
“Horrendous tortures were committed on Khashoggi, who came to the consulate for documents,” the Yeni Safak account said.
Should other media organizations confirm these reports (which has become a pattern since Khashoggi disappeared into the consulate on Oct. 2 after being asked to return to pick up a marriage license), calls for sanctions, an arms sales ban – or even the deposing of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman could grow louder.
But while MbS remains ensconced in his protective shield of power, those directly involved in the killing have good reason to be afraid. The United Nations human rights chief Michelle Bachelet has called for the lifting of diplomatic immunity for any facilities and persons tied to the killing, which means that, even if Saudi Arabia gives its nominal “rogue operatives” a pass, extradition requests from Turkey or another UN member would greatly increase their chances of arrest.
(NBC) Brunson knelt to pray over Trump, asking God to give the president “supernatural wisdom to lead the country.”
President Donald Trump met with American pastor Andrew Brunson in the Oval Office on Saturday, one day after the North Carolina pastor was freed from detention in Turkey.
Brunson was released on Friday after nearly two years in detention for terrorism charges and arrived in Washington, D.C., on Saturday afternoon.
Sitting in the Oval Office with Brunson, Trump congratulated the pastor repeatedly and thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for facilitating the release.
“Everybody wanted this to happen. I think we can say this was bipartisan. I think if there was ever a bipartisan event, this was it,” Trump said.
Brunson thanked Trump, his administration and Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., who he said visited him while he was imprisoned. Brunson’s wife, Norine, and their children also thanked Trump.
“You really fought for us,” Brunson said.
Trump praised Vice President Mike Pence and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who he said brought Brunson’s case up frequently.
“I would say we spoke about this at least once a day,” Trump said. “We thought we had it done two months ago. Sometimes it doesn’t always work out, but I can only tell you that’s better than anybody else could have done.”
Trump also championed his role in facilitating the release of Americans held in North Korea and Egypt.
“Right now the whole world is fan of yours,” Trump said, referring to numerous faith leaders, members of Congress and his administration who advocated for Brunson’s release. “The whole world is your fan and your family’s fan.”
Brunson later asked to pray over the president, which Trump joked he needed “more than probably anybody in this room.” Kneeling before Trump, Brunson asked God to give the president “supernatural wisdom to lead the country.”
Norine Brunson also offered her prayers to Trump. The president then replied, “Can I ask you a question? Who did you vote for?”
Trump joked that he already knew the answer, and Andrew Brunson offered that he “sent in an absentee ballot from prison.”
The president also joked that he wouldn’t ask Brunson if he had plans to return to Turkey.
“We do love Turkey. We were there for 25 years and we love the Turkish people” Brunson said.
Bruson said he and his wife plan to go home, pray, and “see what God wants for the next part of our lives.” He said he planned to discuss his treatment in Turkish prison at a later date.
“This is a time to thank the administration and people in government who supported us … We love this country,” Brunson said.
While speaking to media Trump also answered questions about Jamal Khashoggi, the Washington Post journalist, who was alleged to have been killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
When asked if the timing of Brunson’s release and Khashoggi’s suspect death were in any way related, Trump said the timing was purely coincidental.
Trump and Pompeo said they have not yet seen or heard any tapes that would prove what happened to Khashoggi, and added that they’re going to “determine what happened first” before considering any action.
NBC News reported a day before Brunson’s release that a deal had been struck between the U.S. and Turkey that would result in certain charges against him being dropped. Senior Trump administration officials told NBC News that discussions between the two countries included a commitment by the U.S. to ease economic pressure on Turkey.
But Trump tweeted on Saturday that there was no deal made with the Turks and that he doesn’t “make deals for hostages.”
Brunson, a North Carolina native, was one of two dozen Americans charged with helping Kurdish militants and supporters of Fethullah Gulen, the cleric whom the government blames for planning a failed coup in 2016. Brunson, who had lived Turkey for more than two decades, has denied the charges.
The evangelical pastor who led a small congregation in Turkey had been convicted and sentenced to more than three years in prison. But he was ordered released for time served and allowed to leave the country after spending nearly two years in detention. A separate charge of espionage was also dropped.
Trump was among many politicians celebrating his release. It’s viewed as a triumph for both the president and Republicans who are counting on the support of evangelical Christians in the November election.
Trump told a crowd of thousands of supporters in Lebanon, Ohio, on Friday, “We’ve had a lot of success.”
(Reuters) Ratings agency Moody’s sounded more alarm about Turkey’s banking sector on Tuesday, downgrading 20 financial institutions and citing the increased risk of a deterioration in funding.
The comments from Moody’s are the latest to highlight the risk to Turkey’s banking sector from an ongoing currency crisis. It said the operating environment is now worse than previously expected.
The lira TRYTOM=D3 has fallen some 40 percent so far this year, hit by investor concern about President Tayyip Erdogan’s grip on monetary policy and a widening rift with the United States. Investors are concerned the Turkish economy is set for a hard landing and lenders could see a spike in bad debts.
“The downgrades primarily reflect a substantial increase in the risk of a downside scenario, where a further negative shift in investor sentiment could lead to a curtailing of wholesale funding,” Moody’s said in a statement.
It lowered its “standalone baseline credit assessments” of 14 lenders by one notch, and those of four other banks by two notches. It downgraded the “corporate family ratings” of two finance companies by a notch.
For years Turkish firms have borrowed in euros and dollars, to take advantage of lower rates, but that has exposed firms to substantial currency risk.
In the next 12 months, around $77 billion of foreign currency wholesale bonds and syndicated loans, or 41 percent of the total market funding, needs to be refinanced, Moody’s said.
Turkish banks hold around $48 billion of liquid assets in foreign currency and have around $57 billion in compulsory reserves with the central bank, Moody’s said, adding the latter would not be entirely available.
“In a downside scenario, where investor sentiment shifts, the risk of a prolonged closure of the wholesale market would lead most banks to materially deleverage, or to require external funding support from the government, or the Central Bank.”
In Berlin, a German government official said Germany is not considering providing Turkey with a financial lifeline to help it overcome its currency crisis.
A second German official told Reuters: “You can’t do much from outside but to stress that Turkey must reform itself.”
I want to flag a point about the President’s current trade spat with Turkey.
First, Turkey has moved in a decidedly negative direction in recent years, both in terms of internal repression and attempts to find a working alliance with Russia, despite being a NATO member state. There are lots of reasons for the US to be down on Turkey. But the Trump administration has actually been fairly indulgent toward Turkey and the man who is increasingly synonymous with the Turkish state, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He’s the kind of guy Trump likes – autocratic, intolerant of dissent. But the current flare-up in US-Turkish relations is unrelated to any of that. It has to do with the detention of American Pastor Andrew Brunson.
Brunson was arrested in October 2016 on charges of being a member of the Gulen Movement and complicit in the July 2016 failed coup, as well as possibly being an American spy. (Gulen is a Muslim cleric who lives in exile in the US. Erdogan holds his movement responsible for the coup, which may or may not be true.) The Erdogan government arrested tens of thousands of Turks for alleged ties to the coup and conducted a massive purge of the state sector. This was a dramatic acceleration of the growing repression and autocracy that preceded the coup. Point being, the Erdogan government is bad news and they clearly used the coup to deepen their grip on Turkey. In this context I really have no idea whether Brunson’s arrest has some merit to it or is completely trumped up.
But Brunson is not the only US citizen swept up in the crackdown. And even if we believe that he’s a victim in this – which is entirely possible, perhaps even probable – states don’t destroy their bilateral relationships over the fate of a single national caught up in another country’s legal system.
Here we get to the real issue. It is quite clear that the only reason Brunson has become the central issue in US-Turkish relations is because he is an evangelical pastor and he’s become a top issue for US evangelicals who are the core of Trump’s power base. What is important to them is non-negotiable for him. Full stop. So here we have the US President wreaking havoc with the Turkish economy and putting the bilateral relationship into crisis as a payoff to his evangelical supporters. That is simply terrible.
The situation is murkier because of all the good reasons for downgrading relations with Turkey. But the fact is that this is another prime example that President Trump doesn’t want to be President but rather more like a faction leader or warlord who uses his control of the state to direct nonstop payoffs to his core supporters.
(FXstreet) According to the Financial Times (FT), Tusiad, the Turkish Industry and Business Association, and Tobb, the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey have urged the Turkish President Erdogan to tighten monetary policy, introduce austerity measures and urgently resolve a dispute with the US in a bid to stabilize the battered the Lira.
Leading Turkish business groups said that “tighter monetary policy is required in order to stabilize exchange rates”, as were accompanying “austerity measures”.
The business organizations called for continued “diplomatic efforts to urgently resolve the problems in the US-Turkey relationship”.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that for a second consecutive day Turkey’s central bank was not lending at its benchmark interest rate of 17.5 percent, instead of making funds available at 19.25 percent.
The lira fell as low as 6.89 to the dollar Monday, down about 7 per cent on the day and 45 per cent since the start of the year. The main stock index fell 3.5 per cent.
Here is a look at some of the reasons behind the plunge and how it might affect the rest of the world.
Why is Turkey’s currency suddenly so weak?
The country’s economy has grown strongly in recent years, booking 7 per cent growth last year. A favourable global environment has given an added push. Central banks in the rich world kept interest rates at or near zero for years, making it attractive for companies in Turkey to borrow in foreign currencies. Investors facing sparse returns on short-term investments in the more developed world, like the U.S., found higher returns if they sent their money to emerging markets such as Turkey. Low oil prices helped, too.
Now, those factors working in reverse. The U.S. Federal Reserve is raising rates, and oil prices are higher.
How has Turkey hurt itself?
Turkey’s economy has long shown signs of overheating. Inflation hit 15.9 per cent annually in June. The country has run a large trade and investment deficit with the result of the world, buying more than it sells and relying on foreign investment and lending. That deficit — called the current account — can weigh on a currency, especially when foreign investment stops flowing in.
As the currency weakens, it can make foreign investors pull their money out of Turkish stocks and bonds as their lira investments lose value. To do that, they have to sell lira — worsening the rout.
Is it politics or economics?
The lira’s fall has been made worse by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements on economic policy. He has urged the central bank to not raise interest rates. Rate increases are the central bank’s main tool to support the currency and fight inflation, though they can slow growth. The central bank appears to have heeded Erdogan and has not raised rates when many — including the International Monetary Fund — have urged it to. That drained investor confidence in the central bank, leading to a further sell-off of the currency.
Erdogan’s decision to name his son-in-law as finance minister also made people wonder about the direction of the country’s economic policy.
What about the dispute with Trump and the U.S.?
Turkey’s decision to jail Protestant pastor Andrew Brunson from the U.S. has led to the U.S. imposing sanctions on two Turkish government ministers. Conservative evangelical Protestants are a key constituency for U.S. President Donald Trump.
The mere fact that the U.S. would impose sanctions on Turkey — a stalwart NATOally for decades during the Cold War — has increased uncertainty about the future in Turkey.
Trump raised the stakes Friday when he said his administration would double its tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. That caused a further drop in the lira. The U.S. was Turkey’s biggest export market for steel last year, though exports have fallen since.
How is the fall in the lira a problem?
It is a problem for Turkish businesses and banks that get revenues in lira and owe money in dollars or euros. The lira has fallen about 40 per cent against the dollar this year. That makes a loan in dollars that much more expensive to repay. So the sudden fall raises the possibility of corporate bankruptcies or bank failures that could hurt the economy.
The currency drop will also increase the cost of living for people in Turkey by making imports more expensive. Prices are already up 16 per cent since last year and this week’s drop will make that worse.
What impact could the turmoil have outside Turkey?
There are some concerns about whether European banks would suffer losses on loans in Turkey. The euro currency dropped to a 13-month low on Friday, and bank shares fell.
Tom Kinmonth, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro Bank, has calculated that European bank exposure is limited in Turkey. Spain’s BBVA has significant exposure, with 31 per cent of pre-tax profit coming from Turkish operations. UniCredit, BNP, ING and HSBC have smaller businesses there.
Outside those five banks, he said, European exposure is “minimal.”
Trouble in Turkey could make investors reassess their holdings in other emerging markets. So far, however, Turkey has not sparked a global rout in emerging markets.
Additionally, Europe is nervous because depends on Turkey to restrain the flow of migrants from conflict in the Middle East in return for aid. Some 4 million displaced people, most them from Syria, are currently living in Turkey. Any resumption of serious migrant flows from Turkey would be a big political issue in Europe, where opposition to immigration has fueled the rise of right-wing parties.
How is Turkey trying to fix this?
In theory, Erdogan could turn to the International Monetary Fund for financial help. He could also impose limits on money transfers to keep capital from fleeing. So far he’s shown no sign of doing either.
Having to obey IMF conditions in return for assistance would be a blow to his prestige. Money controls could backfire because Turkey needs foreign investment.
WATCH BELOW: Trump welcomes Erdogan to the White House in 2017
Instead, Erdogan has doubled down. He has mainly blamed foreigners for trying to destabilize the country and equated the financial turmoil to the 2016 coup attempt that sought to depose him. He told supporters to “change the euros, the dollars and the gold that you are keeping beneath your pillows into lira at our banks. This is a domestic and national struggle.”
The central bank has taken steps to make short-term credit more easily available to banks, but has not raised interest rates.
(EUobserver) The Turkish lira dropped almost nine percent in early trading on Monday and the euro hit a one-year low as investors feared Turkey’s financial crisis could spread into European markets. The lira has lost more than 40 percent of its value this year on worries over president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic management. Erdogan accused foreign countries of waging war on Turkey and said he would respond with trade measures.
- Turkish lira hits all-time low versus the U.S. dollar.
- The country’s economy is viewed as imbalanced due to rampant inflation.
- The United States has also threatened to impose “big sanctions” over a U.S. pastor.
The Turkish lira has collapsed to an all-time record low against the dollar, but the country’s leader has brushed aside concerns, telling Turks “we have our God.”
The lira hit fell more than 12 percent in value to reach more than six lira to each dollar on Friday morning. At around 5:00 ET, the currency had risen back to $5.911. As recently as April one dollar bought about four Turkish lira.
The latest bout of selling comes after a Turkish delegation returned from the United States with apparently no progress on the detention of a U.S. pastor. The evangelist, Andrew Brunson, is charged with supporting a group blamed for an attempted coup in 2016.
President Donald Trump said in July that the U.S. would place “large sanctions” on the country for the pastor’s detention.
Late Thursday, Turkish President Recep Erdogan said he will stand up to the pressure.
“There are various campaigns being carried out. Don’t heed them,” Erdogan said. “Don’t forget, if they have their dollars, we have our people, our God. We are working hard. Look at what we were 16 years ago and look at us now,” Erdogan told supporters.
The lira’s three-month implied volatility gauge hit its highest since late 2008. Implied volatility shows the market’s opinion of the currency’s potential moves. If the implied volatility is high, the market things the currency has potential for large price swings in either direction.
European bank concern
The euro dropped 0.5 percent against the dollar on Friday morning, following reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned over the impact of a weak Turkish lira on European banks.
According to the Financial Times, the lira’s depreciation could hurt European banks such as Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit, and France’s BNP Paribas in particular.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Friday, Timothy Ash said the FT report was “sensationalist” as any losses incurred by the banks would be by local subsidiary branches who had invested using Turkish lira and not U.S. dollars.
He added however that while banks in Turkey remained in reasonable shape, the country did have a problem with its balance of payments that has occurred because the economy had been allowed to overheat.
“Ultimately now, there is zero credibility in the Central Bank of Turkey and zero credibility in Turkish policy making. Whatever they do, the market doesn’t believe them,” Ash said.
Turkey’s economy is seen as particularly fragile due to its high level of debt that is priced in dollars. The more the lira weakens, the more expensive that debt becomes. The latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that the total amount of Turkish debt payable in other currencies is more than 50 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.
Inflation in the country has been rampant with consumer prices rising almost 16 percent in July alone. While the country’s central bank has raised interest rates in the past to support the currency and quell inflation, the most recent meeting in July saw the Turkish central bank unexpectedly hold its benchmark interest rate at 17.75 percent. Erdogan has repeatedly insisted that rates should not be raised too high, triggering suggestions that the central bank doesn’t act with full independence.
Berat Albayrak, Turkey’s finance minister, is set to reveal “a new economic model” later Friday.
(GUA)The Germany footballer has been criticised for showing pride in his Turkish roots. But why should people of colour have to ditch their national heritage?
It’s often said that black people do so well in sport in countries where they are in a minority because it offers the only opportunity they have to compete on a genuinely level playing field. That’s a simplification, of course: the playing field is not completely level there, either; the ongoing and countless stories of overt racism, from football to athletics and tennis, are testament to that. And if there’s one thing recent events have revealed, it’s that while sport may be more meritocratic than other workplaces, for people of colour the rewards are still conditional.
The footballer Mesut Özil feels he is being penalised for his pride in Turkey, the nation of his heritage, by Germany, the nation of his citizenship. This episode has opened an emotive window into just how precarious national status can be. “I am German when we win, but I am an immigrant when we lose,” Özil said, announcing his retirement from the national team after criticism of his recent performances.
Özil, a key member of the German team that won the World Cup in 2014, had faced a backlash before this year’s tournament after posing for a photo with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – a hardliner widely condemned for human rights abuses. But the problem Germans have with Özil seems to be more about his statement of cultural allegiance with the Turkish nation.
You don’t actually need to pose with a problematic president to experience this disowning. I will never forget the way in which Mo Farah – the British long-distance runner who was propelled to national treasure status after his two 2012 Olympic gold medals – immediately became “Somali-born Farah” when the integrity of his coach’s techniques came into question.
There are many other examples. Ben Johnson, the 100m world record holder, was Canadian – until he was banned for doping, at which point he became widely referred to as “Jamaican-born”. Yannick Noah, the French Open tennis champion who at one point seemed set for world domination, became camerounais when the dream expired.
The French experience is rather specific, as the row over the South African comedian Trevor Noah’s description of France’s World Cup triumph as a victory for the African continent – since that’s where so many players are descended from – reminds us. France has mastered the art of hypocrisy with its official “we don’t see race” stance. Instead, people of minority heritage are stigmatised as les issus de l’immigration – simply another way of othering them.
This prejudice is hard-baked into terminology across Europe. Visible minorities in Britain are labelled “immigrants” or, if they’re born here, “second generation immigrants”. Yet “indigenous” is a nonsensical term for a nation formed by millennia of immigration. Meanwhile, Brits abroad are seen as “expatriates”.
In the Netherlands, visible minority Dutch people were, until recently, allochtoon, a word many of them hate because – while it may initially have been well intentioned – it was always perceived as a way of distinguishing between white “indigenous” Dutch and non-white descendants of immigrants.
In Germany there were Gastarbeiter – who were invited from Turkey to compensate for German labour shortages, but whose long-term presence in the country was not fully accepted. Not surprisingly, some of their children feel an emotional attachment to Turkey (“I have two hearts”, Özil has said), yet Germany has decided that dual allegiances are no longer convenient.
Germany doesn’t get to decide what the children of those it has treated as second-class citizens for so long get to do with the rights they have now acquired. Nor do France and Britain. Nor do the leaders of European countries that invented racial categories – necessary for the purposes of their own plans for enslavement and colonisation – get to unilaterally decide that these are no longer relevant, now that it’s become inconvenient for them to face up to the legacy of their own creation.
We get to define our identities, our allegiances and our relationship to our heritage. Özil’s identity as both Turkish and German – quite apart from being perfectly logical – is his by right to express. French people of African heritage have earned the right to their unconditional Frenchness, whether or not they play football, and no French person can stop them celebrating being part of the African diaspora.
This matters. In Britain, for example, many black people benefit from the struggle our parents and grandparents faced to secure citizenship and economic security – although the recent Windrush scandal reminds us that battle is still not over – and now have the luxury of choosing how we want to self-identify. And many of us are actually growing closer to our countries of heritage, despite having never lived there.
There is nothing particularly unusual about this. Similar connections can be found in the Irish and Italian diasporas in America, and in Jewish people everywhere. But for some reason it’s deemed more problematic when people of colour wish to organise around shared cultural or national heritage. It’s part of a belief that somehow Britain did us a favour by letting us come to this country, with our brown faces and strange faiths and all, for which we should be uniquely grateful.
The problem is, European countries didn’t “let” their migrants in; they needed people to rebuild their countries, offering in return low wages and poor living conditions. The descendants of those workers are still processing the racism, prejudice and disadvantage that resulted. But the one thing no one can take away is what we decide about who we are.
By ESZTER ZALAN
The resignation of star player of Turkish origin, Mesut Ozil from the German national team on Sunday evening and the following intense debate in Germany reflects the deep uncertainty around Europe over identity, migration and integration.
The Arsenal player Ozil, born in Germany to Turkish parents, announced in a statement that he would no longer play for Germany after what he said were feelings of “racism and disrespect”.
The 29-year-old Ozil, who won the World Cup in 2014 as part of the German squad, said he would quit after he was heavily criticised for posing for a photo with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May in London. Erdogan has been cracking down on opposition and the press at home.
The two have met before, but the May meeting took place during Erdogan’s campaign for June’s general election in Turkey, and following a deep row between Berlin and Ankara over Germany’s refusal to allow Erdogan to campaign among Germany’s over three million Turkish minority.
“I have two hearts, one German and one Turkish,” Ozil wrote, adding: “For me, having a picture with president Erdogan wasn’t about politics or elections. It was about me respecting the highest office of my family’s country.”
Ozil said he faced months of racist comments from politicians, fans and the German football association, which seemed to have hold him responsible for the German team’s poor performance in this year’s World Cup tournament.
“In the eyes of [German football association president Reinhard] Grindel and his supporters, I am German when we win, but I am an immigrant when we lose,” Ozil wrote.
Ozil’s resignation exposed a deeply-divisive debate in Europe about identity and migration during the World Cup and who can be considered ‘European’.
The German-Turkish player’s feelings of never really being accepted in his native Germany were echoed earlier by Belgian striker Rumalu Lukaku who wrote that went things were going well for his team, he was “the Belgian striker”, and when things were not going so well, he was labelled, “the Belgian striker of Congolese descent”.
A row also erupted around the French team that eventually won the Word Cup, and whose players are mostly from immigrant origins. South African comedian Trevor Noah was criticised by the French ambassador to the US for describing the French national team’s victory as “Africa won the World Cup”.
In a letter Gerard Araud – pointing to the French concept of citizenship – wrote that it is wrong to refer to the players’ African identity.
“France is indeed a cosmopolitan country, but every citizen is part of the French identity and together they belong to the nation of France,” the ambassador wrote. Noah responded saying both African and French identities should be celebrated.
The World Cup, where several European national teams have reflected their society’s multiculturalism, also highlighted how the debate about identity fuels increasingly stronger anti-migration and anti-Islam populist parties across the continent.
While France’s win was celebrated partly because of the players’ mixed origin, it also enraged politicians such as Italy’s interior minister Matteo Salvini, who – according to media reports – left the Moscow stadium early because of his tense relationship with France’s president Emmanuel Macron over migration.
The finalist Croatian team’s homogeneity was taken advantage of by politicians who oppose migration and boast about a homogenous, ‘Christian’ culture in Europe.
“The World Cup finals could be an important message for the future of Europe as an immigrant country plays a Christian country proud of its national identity. That’s why go Croatia!,” a Hungarian MP, Istvan Hollik from a Christian democratic party aligned with premier Viktor Orban’s ruling Fidesz posted on Facebook before the final.
Turkey is a controversial ally to Europe.
The EU in 2016 signed a statement with Erdogan, who pledged to stem the flow of migration towards the continent.
The response on Monday to Ozil’s resignation was divided in Germany.
“With all respect for the family roots, national players must be ready to accept criticism when they allow themselves to be used for election campaigning,” tweeted the German government’s integration commissioner Annette Widmann-Mauz.
Foreign minister Heiko Maas, a Social Democrat, dismissed the idea that Ozil was sending a message to minorities across Germany that integration is impossible.
“I don’t believe the case of a multimillionaire living and working in England gives much insight into the success or failure of integration in Germany,” he said.
Hard-right AfD leader Alice Weidel turned that around and said: “The integration dream doesn’t work even with football millionaires.” She described Ozil’s “tirade” as a “typical example of failed integration”.
Cem Ozdemir, the most prominent ethnic Turkish politician and former leader of the Green Party said that Ozil’s photo remains “wrong and his explanation is unconvincing”.
A spokeswoman for chancellor Angela Merkel, whose decision to allow hundreds of thousands of migrations into Germany in 2015 sparked a fierce debate in Europe about migration – said Monday that most of the roughly three million people with Turkish roots living in Germany were well-integrated.
Turkish justice minister Abdulhamit Gul on the other hand congratulated Ozil on his decision, which he deemed “the most beautiful goal against the fascist virus.”
(BBG) Turkey’s lira plunged after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appointed his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, as economic chief of his new administration, fueling investor unease that the government can calm financial markets.
Albayrak will be in charge of a new ministry of treasury and finance, replacing roles previously held by Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, a former Merrill Lynch banker, and Finance Minister Naci Agbal. Investors considered both to be market-friendly counterweights to a pro-growth bias under Erdogan that has weighed on sentiment.
The lira fell 3.8 percent to 4.7488 per dollar, extending one of the biggest slides across emerging markets this year. Albayrak served as energy minister since 2015.
Investors are concerned that authorities aren’t committed to unwinding months of stimulus that inflated the current account and budget deficits and left assets exposed as major central banks scale back years of loose monetary policy. Political pressure on the central bank not to raise rates in the face of accelerating inflation has also stoked worry about the policymaker’s independence.
Unless Simsek or Agbal are given another policymaking roles, such as in the economic coordination committee, “the likelihood of a July hike by central bank is now lower as key proponents of a hike are out of the picture,” said Inan Demir, an economist at Nomura Plc. in London. “This is the nearest-term policy implication. For longer-term implications we need to hear Mr Albayrak’s announcements/statements.”
Erdogan, who was sworn in as Turkey’s first executive president on Monday, told investors in May that he plans to take more control of economic policy in his new role. He has also pledged to lower interest rates, spooking investors who say the central bank needs to keep real policy rates high to support the nation’s assets and help the economy slow. Turkey grew faster than China last year and the central bank raised interest rates by 500 basis points since April.