…Is China’s Economy Growing…?
…Or Growing what the Government claims…?
…One thing we think we know…
…An economy cannot grow without increases in sales of electricity, cement and steel.
…Because of changes in cement quality used the data is not clear.
…And the current cement glut in China, and also the current excess cement capacity, which at the end of 2015 was of 400 million tons or 15 % of the total, make any assessment very difficult.
…And, anyway, all data from China is everything but clear…
…But I still would argue that the odds are that China is not growing at all.
…And certainly not what Beijing claims it is growing.
…Additionally data released yesterday shows an export slump that deepened in February,with overseas shipments that tumbled 25.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier.
…And imports felt for the sixteenth month in a row, an estimated 13.8 percent.
…In conclusion,and has I have said in previous occasions, I am of the opinion that China’s economy is not growing at all.
…And this is very dangerous.
Francisco (Abouaf) de Curiel Marques Pereira