(Express) BORIS JOHNSON was handed a huge boost on Monday afternoon after the latest general election poll placed him nudging further ahead of Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson was handed a boost after the latest poll results saw him push further ahead of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn as Brits prepare to vote in the December 12 General Election. The poll results come on the same day Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said he would stand down MPs challenging seats in which the Tory party won in the 2017 election. In the ICM opinion poll for Reuters, Mr Johnson’s Conservatives rose a point to 39 percent, while the Labour Party held its current support at 31 percent.
The poll also showed the Liberal Democrats, vowing to “stop Brexit” were unchanged on 15 percent, while the Brexit Party dipped with its support, down a point to eight percent.
The survey took place online between November 8 and November 11, and quizzed 2,035 people.
It comes following a turbulent day, after Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announced his party would not stand in the seats the Tories won in the 2017 General Election.
Speaking to supporters in Hartlepool Mr Farage explained he made the decision because he feared that if they had run it would have led to a hung Parliament with critical gains for the Liberal Democrats, who are trying to stop Brexit.
He said: “The Brexit Party will not contest the 317 seats the Conservatives won at the last election.
“But what we will do is concentrate our total effort into all of the seats that are held by the Labour Party, who have completely broken their manifesto in 2017.”
Mr Farage claimed “our action prevents a second referendum from happening”, before adding: “We will also take on the rest of the Remainer parties.
“We will stand up and we will fight them all.”
Mr Farage also said he wants to see Brexit Party MPs elected to hold Mr Johnson to account if he wins a majority.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn responded to the move by saying: “One week ago Donald Trump told Nigel Farage to make a pact with Boris Johnson.
“Today, Trump got his wish. This Trump alliance is Thatcherism on steroids and could send £500 million a week from our NHS to big drugs companies. It must be stopped.”
Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson tweeted: “The Conservative Party are the Brexit Party now.”
While SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wrote: “Any form of Brexit that is acceptable to Nigel Farage will be deeply damaging for Scotland.
“Makes it all the more important to get rid of Boris Johnson’s Tories, escape Brexit and put Scotland’s future into Scotland’s hands.
“The Tory party has now effectively become the Brexit party. The SNP is the main challenger in all of their Scottish seats.
LONDON (AP) — The long-festering issue of anti-Semitism in Labour Party ranks is coming back to haunt Jeremy Corbyn in the first days of his election campaign to unseat Prime Minister Boris Johnson and take up residence at 10 Downing Street.Full Coverage: Brexit
Corbyn’s bid for Britain’s top job was sidetracked Thursday by renewed claims that he is not fit to be prime minister because of his perceived tolerance of anti-Semitic attitudes, an allegation Corbyn strongly denied.
The criticism came from a former member of the Labour Party’s inner circle who took the extraordinary step of urging British voters to choose Johnson, and from an influential Jewish newspaper that urged Britons to shun Corbyn in the country’s Dec. 12 general election.
Ian Austin, a close aide to Gordon Brown, the Labour Party’s last prime minister, said the party has been poisoned by “anti-Jewish racism” under Corbyn. Austin was one of seven lawmakers who left the Labour Party in February because of allegations of anti-Semitism and its failure to take a clear stand on Brexit.
On Thursday, he urged “decent, traditional, patriotic Labour voters” to vote for Johnson and the Conservatives rather than let Corbyn take power. He said the “scandal of anti-Semitism” has poisoned Labour since Corbyn was elected party leader in 2015.
Those concerns were echoed by the Jewish Chronicle weekly newspaper, a fixture in Britain’s Jewish community since 1841, which said its polling indicated that nearly half of Britain’s Jews would “seriously consider” leaving the country if Corbyn becomes prime minister.
Over his long career, the 70-year-old Corbyn has stoked controversy by championing the grievances of groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and been accused of failing to expel party members who express anti-Semitic views. He has also been criticized for past statements, including a 2010 speech in which he compared Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip to Nazi Germany’s sieges of Leningrad and Stalingrad during World War II.
Corbyn denied the allegations, saying Thursday that “anti-Semitism is a poison and an evil in our society” and that he was working to root it out of the Labour Party.
“Our party has confronted the issue, we have suspended or expelled members, we have an education program and all of that has been set up since I became the leader of this party, and we’ll carry on doing exactly that,” he said.
“There are many Jewish people in this country who are members of the Labour Party, supporters of the Labour Party, work with the Labour Party and they do not share the views that have been put forward on the front page of the Jewish Chronicle,” Corbyn said.
The controversy erupted as Corbyn has been trying to focus attention on his party’s economic plans, based on a broad call for social justice and the restoration of social services cut by the Conservatives since 2010.
Corbyn has been dogged by allegations of anti-Semitism since his spectacular rise from the obscurity of Labour’s back benches to the party’s top spot. He has moved Labour sharply to the left and away from the center ground staked out by former Prime Minister Tony Blair, who led the party to three straight election triumphs.
A year before he took the party’s helm, he was widely criticized for attending a 2014 wreath-laying ceremony at a memorial in Tunisia honoring Palestinians whom Israel has linked to the murders of 11 Israelis at the 1972 Munich Olympics.
On Thursday, the Jewish Chronicle took the unusual step of publishing a front-page editorial aimed at “non-Jews” who would not normally read the paper. It said fears were raised when Corbyn became party leader but that some had hoped he would become more tolerant.
“The opposite has happened. The near-total inaction of Mr. Corbyn and the rest of the Labour leadership in dealing with anti-Semites in the party has both emboldened them and encouraged others,” the newspaper said.
Senior Labour figures fought back against the allegations raised Thursday.
John McDonnell, Labour’s economy spokesman and a key Corbyn ally, said Labour was “saddened” by criticism in the Jewish media but added “we’re doing everything they asked of us to address this issue.”
He accused Johnson and the Conservatives of racism but did not provide specifics.
“Voting for Boris Johnson, if you are a Labour voter and you want to protect your community, is absolutely absurd and it makes no sense at all,” said Rebecca Long-Bailey, Labour’s business spokeswoman.
Labour’s fledgling campaign was also rocked by the resignation Wednesday of deputy leader Tom Watson.
Austin’s comments and Watson’s resignation underscore the unease many Labour lawmakers have with Corbyn’s left-wing views, his leadership style and his reluctance to take a clear stand on whether Britain should leave the European Union or remain in the 28-nation bloc.
Johnson pushed hard for the early election, which is coming more than two years ahead of schedule, after Parliament thwarted his plans to have Britain leave the EU on Oct. 31. Johnson hopes to win an outright majority in Parliament so he can pass a divorce bill in time for Britain to leave by the next Brexit deadline on Jan. 31.
Until now, Brexit has been the main campaign issue, but Labour is trying to shift the debate onto domestic issues such as health care, the environment and social welfare.
John Bercow, the former House of Commons speaker who oversaw Britain’s bruising parliamentary battles over Brexit, told The Associated Press in an interview Thursday that leaving the EU would be a historic mistake but added it’s not too late to reverse the decision.
Other parties competing in the Dec. 12 election include the Liberal Democrats, who want to cancel Brexit; the Scottish National Party, which opposes Brexit and wants Scotland to leave the U.K.; and the Brexit Party, which says Britain should leave the bloc without a deal.
Three parties that want to stay in the EU — the Liberal Democrats, the Green party and the Welsh party Plaid Cymru — announced an agreement Thursday not to run against each other in dozens of seats in order to make it more likely that pro-EU candidates will prevail.
The arrangement negotiated by the Unite to Remain group means there will be 60 election districts in which voters will have only one candidate who favors staying in the EU, which the group hopes will boost their chances.
Over the last five years, China has spent unprecedented amounts overseas, but now the acquisitions are drying up as national security concerns worry the west. James Fontanella-Khan and Arash Massoudi, the FT’s corporate finance and deals experts, explain why the US, Europe and others have become wary of China and brought in measures to limit foreign takeovers.
(BBG) I started covering what’s now called Xerox Holdings Corp. in 1982, when I was 24 years old and I opened a correspondency for the Associated Press in Rochester, N.Y. Xerox was already past its glory days. It was known for having lost most of its copier market share to the Japanese. It had invented—but never exploited—the key computing technologies that went into the Macintosh computer, which came out in 1984. Some of my headlines from those years: “Xerox Unveils High-Volume Copier.” “Xerox Renews Office-Automation Drive.” “25 Years After the ‘914’, Xerox Faces New Tests.”
Considering how many things have gone wrong for Xerox along the way, it’s amazing that it’s healthy enough to mount a credible offer to buy another faded legend, Hewlett-Packard Co. What’s even more amazing is that its stock price has jumped since the news of a possible deal broke. It closed on Nov. 8 at $38.35 a share, up from $36.37 a share on Nov. 5. Often in a merger, the stock of the acquiring company goes down because investors fear it’s overpaying.
The optimism of Xerox shareholders appears to be based on projected savings. A merger that eliminated duplication would enable the combined companies to save costs in shrinking businesses. Xerox makes printers and copiers, while HP (having spun off its server business) makes printers and personal computers. Given the combined companies’ large market share, the deal might also invite the scrutiny of antitrust authorities.
Here’s what Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Robert Schiffman said about the possible deal: “A merger with HP would create a behemoth printing and PC maker with nearly $70 billion in revenue. Though top-line growth challenges may remain in the intermediate term, synergies could help boost annual free cash toward $5 billion and enable future deleveraging.”
In an interview, Schiffman said, “The benefit from Xerox’s perspective is that neither company is overlevered at this point.” Xerox will end up carrying a lot more debt if the deal goes through because it’s proposing to pay HP shareholders mostly in cash, a commodity that isn’t exactly lying around its Norwalk, Conn. headquarters. If instead Xerox paid mostly in its own shares, it would have to issue so many of them that HP shareholders would end up controlling a majority of the combined company.
That raises the question of why, if a merger makes financial sense, HP isn’t the acquiring party. That might still happen, Schiffman says. The problem for HP is that its board took a look at Xerox earlier this year, when it was essentially on the auction block, and decided not to bid. For HP to bid for Xerox now when the price is significantly higher would be hard to swallow.
(ZH) Once again, the ability to code is trumping all other skills,again lending credence to the “learn to code” joke that came off as so harsh to the liberal social media elite that it wound up getting people banned from Twitter.
But the adage is holding true in the bond market, according to Bloomberg, where quants are now striking it rich with the ability to code. The bond market is getting “wired up by systematic players” and firms are scrambling to scoop up the best talent.
Hedge funds are stealing each others’ talent and trying to entice employees with robust compensation packages. For instance, credit-quant clients at Selby Jennings in London are offering annual compensation of $400,000 to a Ph.D. graduate with five years’ experience as a desk strategist.
Ex-Citadel head of quantitative research for global credit Frederic Boyer had no issue finding work, either, after being recruited to Chicago-based Jump Trading, as the HFT firm seeks to move into the bond market. (Note: we highlighted Jump Trading’s war over the best real estate for high frequency trading in Chicago in a past piece here).
AbbVie Looking to Raise $28 Billion in High-Grade Bond Market
And Hugh Willis, co-founder of BlueBay Asset Management, is now starting a systematic debt investment firm in London. More than 70% of the new firm’s staff are able to code. A quant arm of the $113 billion hedge fund called Man Numeric started a corporate debt group last year.
Man Numeric’s Robert Lam, who leads the quantitative credit group with Paul Kamenski, said:
“The pool of candidates is vanishingly small.”
“Building a solid team is a very difficult task. It takes a lot of hard work to get the expertise on the systematic strategies side, as well as be an expert in credit markets,” Kamenski added.
His team members are trained in machine learning, engineering, computer science and econometrics.
Andrew Das Sarma was recently hired by Jump from Citadel where he focused on convertible arbitrage and systematic credit strategies. He has a master’s degree in Applied Mathematics and a bachelor’s in Physics from Harvard University.
Recruiter Options Group reports that interviews for these types of credit quant positions are up by 25% from a year ago.
Robeco’s offices in Rotterdam houses PhD graduates from nearby Erasmus University. Portfolio manager Patrick Houweling says:
“They’re able to take empirical data, program a backtest and analyze the results and make sense of them.”
At the firm, fundamental traders do things like watch Mario Draghi’s press conferences. The quants are nowhere to be found.
“There’s no Draghi on TV screens where the quant researchers sit,” Houweling says. Instead, “a proprietary software program dubbed COBRA hums along each night, delivering an email to portfolio managers in the morning, recommending allocations.”
“It’s less straightforward than equity research. It requires much more attention to detail,” he says. At the fund, humans only intervene in about 5% of the model’s investment decisions. “You need the quant skills and you need the fixed-income skills. If you’re not a fixed-income expert, you may miss out on a lot of these bond-specific things which are simply not there in stocks.”
About 70% of institutional and 78% of wholesale investors believe the strategy of factor-based investing can work in fixed income – especially with “factor investing” in equities misfiring of late.
Luke Williams, partner at London-based recruitment firm Lascaux Partners Ltd said: “There’s been an intensification of interest and willingness to put money on the table in the past 18 months. Credit has emerged as a stand-alone business in the systemic investing world.”
Recall, it was just days ago that we wrote about JP Morgan giving its coders licenses to trade equities.
The bank got regulatory approvals this month for two of its coders in London and New York to trade cash equities. JP Morgan is targeting eight more licenses for coders, globally, by the end of the year.
P.O. Quoting Charles De Gaulle, President of the French Republic: “Ciel sans couleur, fleurs sans odeur, fruits sans saveur, hommes sans honneur et femmes sans pudeur” O Brasil foi, é e será o País do futuro. A libertação do ex-Presidente Lula da Silva, embora possa ser justificada por motivos jurídicos, é um péssimo sinal para o Brasil. Haja o que houver, e dê por onde der.
Francisco (Abouaf) de Curiel Marques Pereira
(JE) O juiz em causa será Danilo Pereira Júnior, da 12.ª Vara Criminal Federal de Curitiba , que terá aceite nesta sexta-feira, de acordo com o site G1, o pedido da defesa do ex-Presidente Lula da Silva, autorizando o ex-presidente do Brasil a deixar a prisão.
Lula da Silva vai ser libertado, de acordo com a decisão assinada por um juiz brasileiro na qual é dada ordem para que o antigo presidente do Brasil saia da prisão, avança a agência Reuters.
O juiz em causa será Danilo Pereira Júnior, da 12.ª Vara Criminal Federal de Curitiba , que terá aceite nesta sexta-feira, de acordo com o site G1, o pedido da defesa do ex-Presidente Lula da Silva, autorizando o ex-presidente do Brasil a deixar a prisão.
O Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) brasileiro anulou esta sexta-feira a possibilidade de prisão de condenados em segunda instância, alterando um entendimento adotado desde 2016, numa decisão que poderá levar à libertação do ex-Presidente Lula da Silva.
Com a decisão, réus condenados só poderão ser presos após o trânsito em julgado, ou seja, depois de esgotados todos os recursos. A única exceção será em caso de prisões preventivas decretadas.
Com esta mudança, 38 condenados no âmbito da Lava Jato, maior operação contra a corrupção no Brasil, serão beneficiados, segundo o Ministério Público Federal. Entre eles está o ex-chefe de Estado brasileiro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, preso desde abril do ano passado, após ser condenado em segunda instância no caso de um apartamento de luxo na cidade do Guarujá, no litoral do estado de São Paulo.
O ex-Presidente brasileiro foi preso após ter sido condenado em segunda instância pelo Tribunal Regional Federal da 4.ª Região (TRF-4), num processo sobre a posse daquele apartamento, que os procuradores alegam ter sido dado a Lula da Silva como suborno em troca de vantagens em contratos com a estatal petrolífera Petrobras pela construtora OAS.
No total, a nova decisão abre caminho para libertar cerca de 5.000 réus, segundo o Conselho Nacional de Justiça brasileiro.
Após cinco sessões de julgamento, o resultado de quinta-feira foi obtido com o voto de desempate do presidente do STF, o juíz Dias Toffoli, com a votação a registar cinco votos a favor da prisão em segunda instância e seis votos contra.
Toffoli iniciou o seu voto lembrando que o que está em discussão é a validade do artigo 283 do Código de Processo Penal do Brasil, que prevê que uma pessoa só pode ser presa após trânsito em julgado do processo, ou seja, quando não houver mais recurso.
O presidente do STF frisou ainda que a decisão do tribunal não visa beneficiar alguém em concreto, e que apenas “se está a analisar a compatibilidade do artigo com a Constituição”.
A aplicação da decisão não é automática, cabendo a cada juiz de execução analisar a situação processual de cada caso.
É possível, por exemplo, um réu ser libertado com base na tese da segunda instância, mas o juiz poderá decretar prisão preventiva contra esse mesmo réu, se considerar que ele preenche algum requisito previsto em lei – como o risco de obstruir as investigações -, segundo o jornal O Globo.
O magistrado Edson Fachin, relator da Operação Lava Jato no STF, e que votou a favor da prisão em segunda instância, afirmou que não haverá “libertação automática” de presos em segunda instância.
“Do ponto de vista do combate à corrupção, branqueamento de capitais, deixamos de ter um mecanismo relevante, no meu modo de ver, constitucional. Mas isso não significa que todos os esforços para que haja o devido combate, nos termos da Constituição, deixarão de ser feitos”, declarou o juíz do STF, citado pelo portal de notícias G1.
O Brasil, infelizmente, como outros Países da América Latina, não é, na minha opinião um País onde se possa viver em segurança, nem investir. Nem vejo como possa ter volta a dar lhe, depois do estado caótico a que chegou.
(Terra) Investidores temem que radicalização de discurso atrapalhe a tramitação das reformas; dólar sobe 1,80 % e vai a R$ 4,16, Bolsa cai 1,78%
O mercado reagiu ontem à soltura do ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) com alta forte do dólar e queda no Ibovespa, principal indicador do Bolsa de São Paulo. A leitura foi de que, do ponto de vista jurídico, a mudança de posição do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) traz insegurança e assusta sobretudo o investidor estrangeiro. Pelo lado político, na visão dos agentes, significa o acirramento da polarização em Brasília e nas ruas, o que poderia afetar o andamento da pauta econômica do governo.
Há, inclusive, parlamentares ameaçando obstruir qualquer votação no Congresso até que ocorra a análise da proposta de emenda à Constituição (PEC) sobre a prisão em segunda instância. Foi nesse ambiente que o dólar subiu 1,80% nesta sexta-feira, 8, e fechou cotado a R$ 4,1666 no mercado à vista. Já a Bolsa fechou com queda de 1,78%, aos 107.628,98 pontos.
Nesta sexta, no caso do câmbio, em menos de 45 minutos, período entre a notícia de que o ex-presidente seria solto e o fechamento do mercado, houve renovação de sucessivas máximas e a incorporação de dois centavos na cotação, da casa de R$ 4,14 para a de R$ 4,16.
“Na semana, a moeda norte-americana refletiu dois eventos: de um lado, o leilão, que começou tudo, e depois a liberação do Lula. O mercado deu uma azedada, não teve nenhuma notícia que ajudasse o real (na semana)”, disse o economista da corretora Nova Futura, Pedro Paulo Silveira. O economista se referia também ao fracasso dos leilões realizados pela Agência Nacional de Petróleo (ANP).
A semana no mercado de ações encerrou com os investidores se desfazendo de suas posições, mesmo após terem absorvido a frustração com os dois leilões de petróleo e gás, com resultado negativo para o governo.
Na avaliação do economista-chefe do banco digital ModalMais, Álvaro Bandeira, o noticiário deu impulso à realização de ganhos acumulados na esticada de cinco mil pontos do índice à vista desde o final de outubro. “A soltura de Lula já estava mais ou menos no preço. O mercado já estava meio que esperando a decisão do Supremo desde que a ministra Rosa Weber mudou o voto”, disse.
No entanto, para ele, apesar dos ruídos que podem haver com a intensificação da polarização, se o governo seguir tocando a agenda liberal e reformista, não deve comprometer a tendência até agora vista para a Bolsa. “Por enquanto, não dá para assustar, vamos ver os desdobramentos.”
O analista-chefe da Necton Corretora, Glauco Legat, ressalta que o tom pode ser mais negativo com Lula solto em um contexto no qual o governo quer fazer mais reformas. “De maneira geral, a soltura dele traz eventos negativos e fica mais evidente o Brasil dividido, com passeatas que já começam”, diz.
Nesse meio tempo, o senador José Serra (PSDB-SP) protocolou requerimento solicitando dados que embasaram a elaboração das três PECs do pacote Mais Brasil, em tramitação no Senado. O tucano quer saber informações detalhadas, entre elas, a economia esperada das medidas e a memória de cálculo das projeções.
O ministro da Economia, Paulo Guedes, poderá ter de abrir em até 30 dias todos os dados e, caso contrário, a tramitação das PECs ficará sobrestada, interrompendo sua tramitação.
(G1) Apelação da defesa do ex-presidente foi liberada na última terça (5) pelo revisor dos processos da Lava Jato na 8ª Turma, Leandro Paulsen.
O ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, em imagem de dezembro de 2017 — Foto: Hélvio Romero/Estadão Conteúdo
O julgamento da apelação do ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva no processo do sítio de Atibaia será realizado às 9h do dia 27 de novembro, uma quarta-feira, na sede do Tribunal Regional da 4ª Região (TRF-4), em Porto Alegre. A data foi marcada pela secretaria da 8ª Turma, e foi divulgada pelo tribunal nesta sexta (8).
A apelação da defesa do ex-presidente já estava liberada desde terça (5). O revisor dos processos da Lava Jato na 8ª Turma, desembargador Leandro Paulsen, pediu a marcação da data.
Conforme o TRF-4, será julgada primeiramente a Questão de Ordem para decidir se a ação deve ou não voltar para a fase das alegações finais com a anulação da sentença da 13ª Vara Federal de Curitiba. No dia 29 de outubro, o Superior Tribunal de Justiça suspendeu esse julgamento, com o argumento de que o pedido deveria ser analisado junto com a apelação.
Caso o trâmite normal do processo seja mantido, a turma avança para a análise do mérito.
O pedido será analisado pela juíza federal Carolina Lebbos, em Curitiba, que é a responsável pela execução penal de Lula.
Outros réus no caso do sítio de Atibaia
Outras 12 pessoas foram denunciadas no processo. Veja aqui como ficaram as penas na primeira instância.
Marcelo Odebrecht, ex-presidente da Odebrecht, teve a condenação suspensa por causa do acordo de delação premiada. Agenor Franklin Medeiros, ex-executivo da OAS, teve a acusação extinta. Rogério Aurélio Pimentel, ex-assessor especial da Presidência, foi absolvido.
Nove réus recorreram ao TRF-4 contra as condenações. Alexandrino de Alencar, ex-executivo da Odebrecht, não apelou.
O procurador do MPF entende que os réus Carlos Armando Guedes Paschoal, ex-diretor da Odebrecht, e Emyr Diniz Costa Junior, ex-engenheiro da empreiteira, devem receber perdão judicial. Os dois são colaboradores.
De acordo com o Ministério Público Federal, Lula recebeu propina do Grupo Schain, de José Carlos Bumlai, e das empreiteiras OAS a Odebrecht por meio da reforma e decoração no sítio Santa Bárbara, em Atibaia (SP), que o ex-presidente frequentava com a família.
A acusação trata do pagamento de propina de pelo menos R$ 128 milhões pela Odebrecht e de outros R$ 27 milhões por parte da OAS.
Para os procuradores, parte desse dinheiro foi usada para adequar o sítio às necessidades de Lula. Segundo a denúncia, as melhorias na propriedade totalizaram R$ 1,02 milhão.
O MPF afirma que a Odebrecht e a OAS custearam R$ 850 mil em reformas na propriedade. Já Bumlai fez o repasse de propina ao ex-presidente no valor de R$ 150 mil, ainda conforme o MPF.
Segundo o MPF, Lula ajudou as empreiteiras ao manter nos cargos os ex-executivos da Petrobras Renato Duque, Paulo Roberto Costa, Jorge Zelada, Nestor Cerveró e Pedro Barusco, que comandaram boa parte dos esquemas fraudulentos entre empreiteiras e a estatal, descobertos pela Lava Jato.
(EP) Las únicas dos opciones en las que los separatistas catalanes no condicionarían el nuevo Gobierno serían la formación de un pacto entre populares y socialistas (208 escaños) o un acuerdo entre las formaciones no independentistas, socialistas y Ciudadanos (180)
La formación de Gobierno se ha complicado más que nunca. Hay varias fórmulas matemáticas que harían posible la investidura de Pedro Sánchez, pero la mayoría de ellas son prácticamente inviables políticamente. Por ejemplo, Sánchez podría ser investido sin contar ni siquiera con la abstención de ERC, pero para ello tendría que lograr el voto a favor de todo el bloque de centro-izquierda y nacionalistas como el PNV, además de los 10 escaños de Ciudadanos, algo muy difícil de gestionar porque los votos de Albert Rivera no combinan bien con los de Unidas Podemos o los nacionalistas vascos. Las dos opciones más realistas son muy complejas. Por un lado, la investidura podría salir con la abstención del PP pero necesitaría el voto a favor de los 10 escaños de Ciudadanos, no bastaría con que se abstuvieran. La otra opción, similar a la que estuvo a punto de salir en julio, necesitaría el voto a favor de Unidas Podemos, PNV y varias formaciones pequeñas más la abstención de ERC, y saldría por la mínima. Si el presidente no quiere depender de esa abstención de los de Esquerra, la única opción viable pasa por contar con el PP.
1. La suma de los tres partidos de izquierdas
Victoria del PSOE. Las cuartas elecciones que vencen los socialistas en un año. Sin embargo, los sillones del Congreso que son necesarios para investir a Pedro Sánchez como presidente del Gobierno quedan aún más divididos. La suma del PSOE (120), Unidas Podemos (35) y Más País (3) se queda en 158 escaños. En abril, sin Más País, la suma con la formación de Pablo Iglesias era de 165, siete más.
2. La suma de las izquierdas + nacionalistas + Ciudadanos
La suma da 180 escaños, pero el conglomerado engloba a nueve partidos. El PSOE (120), Unidas Podemos (35), Más País (3), PNV (7), más la suma de los tres partidos canarios que se han presentado conjuntamente (2), el diputado regional de Cantabria (PRC, 1), ¡Teruel Existe! (1), BNG (1) y Ciudadanos (10).
¿Qué pasaría si los 10 diputados de Ciudadanos se abstuvieran? La suma de los partidos no independentistas PSOE (120), Unidas Podemos (35), Más País (3), PNV (7), más la suma de los tres partidos canarios que se han presentado conjuntamente (2), el diputado regional de Cantabria (PRC, 1), ¡Teruel Existe! (1) y el BNG (1) daría 170 escaños, insuficiente para formar Gobierno en una primera votación porque es necesario sumar 176 diputados, la mayoría absoluta.
Sin embargo, en segunda votación es suficiente con que Pedro Sánchez logre más síes que noes. En este caso, con la abstención de Ciudadanos (10) tampoco sería válido. En el lado de los partidos que darían su apoyo con un sí (PSOE, UP, MP, PRC, los partidos canarios, ¡Teruel Existe!, PNV y BNG) suman un total de 170. Si el resto de formaciones votan que no (PP, Vox, ERC, Bildu, JXCat, CUP y Navarra Suma) logran también 170 noes. Es decir, un empate que tampoco permite la formación de Gobierno en segunda votación.
4. La gran coalición (PSOE+PP)
La gran coalición de PSOE (120 diputados) y PP (88) también evitaría otras elecciones generales en 2020. La primera fuerza política del país y la segunda sumarían 208 escaños, 31 diputados por encima de la mayoría absoluta.
6. La suma de las derechas, la ultraderecha y Navarra Suma
La suma de las dos derechas (PP y Ciudadanos) con los ultraderechistas de Vox se queda en 150 escaños, a 26 de la mayoría absoluta. En abril la suma de estas formaciones logró 149. Y, en esta ocasión, con los diputados de Navarra Suma llegaría a 151, a 25 de los 176 necesarios para obtener la mayoría absoluta.
7. ¿Y si Ciudadanos vota a favor y el PP se abstiene?
Si los 10 diputados del partido de Albert Rivera votaran a favor y los 88 de Pablo Casado se abstuvieran el resultado serían 130 síes (120 del PSOE + 10 de Cs) frente a los 132 noes del resto de la Cámara. Sin embargo, bastaría con que el PSOE lograra algunos síes accesibles (PRC, ¡Teruel Existe!, BNG o Coalición Canaria) en segunda votación para que la investidura prosperara.
8. La abstención de ERC y el sí del bloque de centroizquierda
La mayoría que estuvo a punto de dar la investidura a Sánchez en julio, si hubiera fraguado el pacto con Unidas Podemos, aún es posible matemáticamente. El bloque de centroizquierda junto al PNV, PRC, BNG, ¡Teruel Existe! lograrían 168 síes. Si los 13 de ERC se abstuvieran en una segunda votación, como hicieron en julio, Sánchez sería investido presidente siempre y cuando Coalición Canaria (2) se abstuviera o votara que sí. El resultado sería 167 noes frente a 168 o 170 síes.
The biggest criticism of Evo Morales was his lack of respect for Bolivia’s democracy – accused of overstaying his welcome and refusing to step down.
But the fact that the military has called the shots on the president standing down does not do much for Bolivia’s democracy either.
Now Evo Morales has gone, there is a power vacuum. Increasing numbers of his Mas party are resigning, and it feels like there is a need for retribution – for Evo Morales and his people to pay the price for the mistakes they made while in power.
His supporters have called this a coup – his detractors the end of tyranny. The priority now is to choose an interim leader, call new elections and bring a polarised Bolivia together or face yet more unrest and violence in the coming weeks.
Vice-President Alvaro García and Senate President Adriana Salvatierra also resigned.
Protesters took to the streets to celebrate, chanting “yes we could” and setting off fire crackers.
How did we get here?
Bolivia has been rattled by weeks of anti-government protests, following the reports of election fraud.
Tensions first flared on the night of the presidential election after the results count was inexplicably stopped for 24 hours. The final result gave Mr Morales slightly more than the 10-percentage-point lead he needed to win outright in the first round of the race.
At least three people died during clashes that followed. Some uniformed police officers also joined the protesters.
On Sunday, the Organization of American States, which monitored the elections, said it had found evidence of wide-scale data manipulation, and could not certify the result of the previous polls.
Pressure continued to build on Mr Morales during the day, as several of his political allies resigned, some citing fears for the safety of their families.
The army chief, Gen Williams Kaliman, urged Mr Morales to resign “to allow for pacification and the maintaining of stability”.
The military also said it would conduct operations to “neutralise” any armed groups that attacked the protesters.
What reaction has there been?
Opposition leader Carlos Mesa – who came second in last month’s poll – thanked protesters for “the heroism of peaceful resistance”.
In a tweet, he described the development as “the end of tyranny” and a “historical lesson”, saying, “Long live Bolivia!”
However, the Cuban and Venezuelan leaders – who had previously voiced their support for Mr Morales – condemned the events as a “coup”.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel described it as a “violent and cowardly” attempt against democracy, while Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro said tweeted: “We categorically condemn the coup realised against our brother president.”
Mexico says it is considering granting asylum to Mr Morales.
Who is Evo Morales?
Bolivia’s first indigenous president, he had served as leader since 2006.
He ran for a fourth consecutive term in the October elections after a controversial decision by the constitutional court to scrap presidential term limits.
In a 2016 referendum, a majority had voted “no” to dropping the limit of term numbers that Bolivians could serve.
However, Mr Morales’ party took the issue to the constitutional court, which abolished the term limits altogether.
(Reuters) An Italian court has convicted 13 former bankers from Deutsche Bank, Nomura and Monte dei Paschi di Siena over derivative deals that prosecutors say helped the Tuscan bank hide losses in one of the country’s biggest financial scandals.
The verdict, read in court on Friday by lead judge Lorella Trovato, also ordered fines and asset seizures worth a total of 68 million euros from Deutsche Bank AG <DBKGn.DE> and 91.5 million euros from Nomura Holdings Inc <8604.T>.
Monte dei Paschi reached a settlement with the court over the case in 2016 at a cost of 10.6 million euros.
The case centres on two complex derivatives transactions — known as Alexandria and Santorini — that Nomura and Deutsche Bank arranged for Monte dei Paschi in 2009.
Prosecutors said the deals helped Monte dei Paschi, which was founded in 1472 and is Italy’s fourth biggest lender, hide more than 2 billion euros of losses racked up after the costly acquisition of a smaller rival in 2008.
“We are disappointed with the verdict. We will review the rationale for it once it is published,” Deutsche Bank said in a statement.
Nomura also said it was disappointed. “After thoroughly examining the content of the judgment, the company will consider all options, including an appeal,” it said.
The scandal, together with more losses suffered by Monte dei Paschi during the euro zone debt crisis, threatened to destabilise Italy’s financial industry and forced the Siena-based lender to seek an 8 billion euro state bailout in 2017.
In the trial, which started in Milan in December 2016 and took 100 hearings to complete, the three banks and 13 defendants faced allegations of false accounting and market manipulation between 2008 and 2012.
Monte dei Paschi and its former top managers were also accused of misleading regulators.
In recent years, instances of bankers being convicted of fraud have been relatively rare and experts said any conviction in this case would come as a surprise.
While few executives from major global banks have faced criminal charges for their roles in the financial crisis, there have been several convictions of senior bankers at smaller European lenders.
In 2017, four former managers of Spanish savings bank Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo, and former International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato were jailed by Spain’s High Court in similar corruption cases related to the financial crisis. (https://reut.rs/2rmCYKZ)
In the Monte Paschi trial all defendants have always denied wrongdoing and none of them will serve time in jail before the lengthy appeals process is exhausted.
First trial jail sentences in Italy can be significantly reduced or completely overturned in the appeals process. Some of the Monte Paschi former executives convicted on Friday have been acquitted by higher courts in related trials.
Monte dei Paschi’s former chairman Giuseppe Mussari, one of five former executives from the Tuscan bank on trial, was given the heaviest sentence of seven years and six months in jail.
Deutsche Bank and Nomura were both convicted as institutions for failing to prevent wrongdoing by their employees.
All six defendants linked to Deutsche Bank and the two who once worked for Nomura were handed jail terms.
They include sentences of four years and eight months each for Ivor Dunbar, former co-head of Global Capital Markets at the German bank, Michele Faissola, its former head of Global Rates, and Michele Foresti, its former head of Structured Trading.
Nomura’s former chief executive officer for the EMEA region, Sadeq Sayeed, was also given a sentence of four years and eight months while Raffaele Ricci, the former head of the bank’s EMEA Sales, was handed a sentence of three years and 5 months.
Lawyers for the defendants said they expected to appeal the verdict once the full ruling is released.
(NYT) LISBON — European investment in Portugal’s digital sector can help address a shortfall in equity funding for start-ups and support an export-driving technology industry, Portugal’s economy minister said on Wednesday.
A 30 million euro fund backed by the European Investment Fund, the Portuguese government and venture capital investors was announced on Tuesday at the Web Summit – Europe’s largest tech conference, held in Lisbon since 2016.
The fund will invest in Iberian startups focused on artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data.
“Access to finance is an issue here in Portugal and in Europe, putting us below par to our American competitors,” Economy Minister Pedro Siza Vieira told a press conference on Tuesday.
“Working together with European authorities allows us to leverage the very small availability of public money in this country,” he added.
Virtually non-existent 10 years ago, Portugal’s start-up sector attracted 485 million euros ($537 million) in foreign investment and contributed to 1.1% of GDP last year.
Revenue generated from exports by the sector in 2018 nearly doubled from 2016 levels, reaching 1.1 billion euros, or 1.9% of Portugal’s total export revenue that has been growing year-on-year since the financial and debt crisis of the early 2010s.
Siza Vieira told Reuters that improving Portugal’s data processing capacity was crucial to the economy.
A supercomputer installed earlier this year, which multiplied Portugal’s computational capacity ten-fold, was an untapped opportunity for start-ups, he added.
Portugal’s young people are highly educated and often multilingual, but wages remain far below the European average, with the minimum wage at 600 euros month ($664) and average wage at 943 euros ($1,045), government data shows.
A qualified labor force, tax incentives, and a stable political environment are Portugal’s competitive advantages, according to Siza Vieira. The Socialist government, now in its second term, has presided over a period of solid economic growth and budget deficit cuts.
“We expect to see a sizeable increase in companies from abroad investing in service centers and software development in Portugal and exporting from here,” he said.
Siza Vieira expects the majority of investment to come from European companies, stating that most of the firms announcing expansion in Portugal at the Lisbon event are European.
The FT’s UK political commentator Robert Shrimsley and deputy opinion editor Miranda Green map out the key battlegrounds as Conservative and Labour fight for votes, with the Liberal Democrats, Brexit Party and SNP among those also in the mix
(JE) A ANA admitiu surpresa com os 48 milhões de euros exigidos pela APA para as medidas mitigadoras, mas Nuno Lacasta aguarda “serenamente”.
Cerca de uma semana após ter anunciado uma decisão favorável condicionada ao projeto do aeroporto complementar do Montijo, Nuno Lacasta, presidente da APA – Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, em entrevista exclusiva ao Jornal Económico em que exigiu falar apenas sobre este tema, avança novos detalhes sobre a infraestrutura. Não haverá ligação ferroviária direta ao futuro aeroporto, apenas um shuttle rodoviário para a estação do Pinhal Novo, com chegada a Lisboa pela ponte 25 de abril. As acessibilidades não estão incluídas nos 48 milhões de euros que a APA contabilizou como despesa suplementar a cargo da concessionária ANA/Vinci, presumindo-se que estes custos deverão ser suportados pelo Estado. Foi também sugerido o estudo de construção de um pipeline para abastecimento de combustível, cujos custos se desconhecem, assim como quem terá de os suportar. Os riscos de segurança ainda terão de ser avaliados pela ANAC – Autoridade Nacional Nacional da Aviação Civil, que terá a palavra final, após a ANA, que se mostrou “surpreendida” com a decisão provisória da APA, se pronunciar sobre a matéria.
Que tipo de mecanismo financeiro prevê a APA para a gestão da área afetada pelo futuro aeroporto do Montijo? Esse é um mecanismo para a conservação da natureza. Será uma sociedade-veículo, de capitais exclusivamente públicos, para a gestão da área afetada, que será gerida pelo ICNF – Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas. Será criado com um montante inicial de 7,2 milhões de euros, a pagar pelo proponente [ANA/Vinci], a que acrescerá uma contribuição anual na casa dos 200 mil euros, indexada ao número de movimentos no aeroporto por cada ano, por um período de 50 anos, que é a duração do contrato do Estado com a ANA/Vinci.
No âmbito da proposta de declaração de impacte ambiental (DIA) sobre o aeroporto do Montijo prevê-se a afetação direta e indireta de 2.500 hectares para uma zona de proteção da avifauna do estuário. Esses terrenos são do Estado? O que procurámos fazer, em articulação com o ICNF, foi identificar a área afetada, direta ou indiretamente, pelo aeroporto. Em primeiro lugar, ver se haveria para lá da área do próprio aeroporto terrenos com potencial geomórfico e biofísico para as aves lá nidificarem. E encontrámos essa área de compensação física com uma extensão de 1.600 hectares, incluindo o Mouchão da Póvoa. Alguns terrenos pertencem ao Estado. Em relação aos outros, terá de se proceder a arrendamentos, a compras ou mesmo a expropriações.
(EUobserver) European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker told German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung on Thursday that US president Donald Trump will not impose tariffs European Union automotive goods. “Trump will ruffle a bit, but there will not be any automobile tariffs. He won’t do it. You’re talking to a fully-informed man,” he said.
(Economist) Blame economics, demography, a sense of powerlessness…and social media
FOR ANYONE trying to follow protest movements around the world it is hard to keep up. Large anti-government demonstrations, some peaceful and some not, have taken place in recent weeks in places on every continent: Algeria, Bolivia, Britain, Catalonia, Chile, Ecuador, France, Guinea, Haiti, Honduras, Hong Kong, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Lebanon and more. On November 1st Pakistan joined the ever-lengthening roll as tens of thousands of protesters converged on the capital, Islamabad, to demand that the prime minister, Imran Khan, stand down within 48 hours.
Probably not since the wave of “people power” movements swept Asian and east European countries in the late 1980s and early 1990s has the world experienced such a simultaneous outpouring of popular anger on the streets. Before that, only the global unrest of the late 1960s bears comparison in terms of the number of countries swept up and the number of people mobilised.
(Economist) Europe is “on the edge of a precipice”, says France’s president. Is he right?
Today’s europe owes its existence to the United States. America fought two world wars on European soil; American diplomacy was midwife to what became the European Union; American arms protected western Europe from Soviet invasion; and American statesmen oversaw German unification. Now, in a dramatic plea to all Europeans, France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has warned that America is cutting Europe loose. The old continent is “on the edge of a precipice”, he warns. Unless it wakes up, “we will no longer be in control of our destiny.”
In his Elysée Palace office, Mr Macron spoke to The Economist in apocalyptic terms (see article). nato, the transatlantic alliance, is suffering from “brain-death”, he says; Europe needs to develop a military force of its own. The eu thinks of itself as just a market, but it needs to act as a political bloc, with policies on technology, data and climate change to match. Past French presidents have argued that Europe cannot rely on America, and should look to France instead. Mr Macron is not just rehashing this view. He believes that America and Europe have shared interests and has worked tirelessly to keep good relations with President Donald Trump. But he argues that for the first time America has a president who “does not share our idea of the European project”. And even if Mr Trump is not re-elected, historical forces are pulling the old allies apart.
(ZH) The social-economic turmoil in Hong Kong is certainly unprecedented.
Retail sales have crashed, housing prices are rolling over, monetary policy via the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is failing to stabilize the economy, and now, new evidence suggests the financial industry is starting to crack.
Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the world’s third-largest stock exchange (in terms of average daily trading volume), recorded its worst profit in three years as investors fled regional stocks.
Net income of the exchange plunged 10% to $282 million in Q3 YoY, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. This was one of the most significant drops since the global slowdown in 2016.
Last week, Hong Kong crashed into a technical recession, the first time since the 2008/09 financial crisis. Hong Kong’s economy plunged 3.2% in Q3, government data showed last week, exceeding economists’ lowest estimates and confirming a technical recession has begun.
Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan warned after more than half a year of violent anti-government demonstrations, the end of October marked the start of the recession.
“After seeing negative growth in the second quarter, the situation continued in the third quarter, meaning our economy has entered technical recession,” Chan wrote in a blog post.
“It seems it will be extremely difficult for us to reach full-year economic growth of 0 to 1%. I would not rule out the possibility that the full-year economic growth will be negative.”
With two consecutive quarters of negative growth and no end to the protests in sight, Bloomberg has noted in a series of graphs that a full-year economic contraction is likely for 2020.
Since the protests became violent in early summer, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing shares have slipped 12%.
As the crisis deepens in Hong Kong, it’s likely the Hang Seng is setting up for another leg lower.